基于Joinpoint和APC模型的2010—2019年新疆克拉玛依市队列人群HPV感染特征及趋势分析  

Analysis of HPV infection characteristics and trend of cohort population in Karamay City,Xinjiang,2010—2019 based on Joinpoint and APC Model

作　　者：聂艳武 马玉花 王琛琛[4] 田茂再 姜敏[3] 杨振[1] 孙亚红 张利萍 NIE Yan-wu;MA Yu-hua;WANG Chen-chen;TIAN Mao-zai;JIANG Min;YANG Zhen;SUN Ya-hong;ZHANG Li-ping(School of Public Health,Xinjiang Medical University,Urumqi,Xinjiang 830017,China;不详)

机构地区：[1]新疆医科大学公共卫生学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830017 [2]同济大学附属东方医院肿瘤科 [3]克拉玛依市中心医院病理科 [4]新疆维吾尔自治区疾病预防控制中心 [5]新疆医科大学医学工程技术学院省部共建国家重点实验室 [6]中国人民大学统计学院

出　　处：《现代预防医学》2022年第11期1921-1925,共5页Modern Preventive Medicine

基　　金：新疆自然科学基金(2021D01A21);省部共建中亚高发病成因与防治国家重点实验室开放课题(SKL-HIDCA-2020-9);国家自然科学基金(72163033,72064036,72174175)。

摘　　要：目的 分析新疆克拉玛依市人乳头瘤病毒(Human papillomavirus,HPV)感染情况以及时间变化趋势,为制定HPV防控政策提供理论依据。方法 研究针对2010—2019年新疆克拉玛依市多家单位人群宫颈分型HPV检测动态随访队列,采用卡方检验比较汉族和少数民族HPV感染率,基于Joinpoint回归模型分析汉族和少数民族不同年份和不同年龄的阶段趋势,采用年龄-时期-队列模型(Age-Period-Cohort model,APC)探讨年龄、时期、出生队列对HPV感染情况的独立影响。结果 研究共累积筛查64 681人,其中HPV感染率为17.51%。汉族和少数民族HPV感染率无差别(χ^(2)=1.52,P=0.22)。Joinpoint回归结果显示,汉族和少数民族在年份上整体变化趋势无统计学差异(P=0.42),均无转折点,整体均呈下降趋势,在年龄上整体变化趋势无统计学差异(P=0.13),均有两个转折点,汉族转折点在26岁和51岁,少数民族转折点在25岁和55岁,均呈现两边感染率较高中间较低的U型分布。APC模型结果显示:年龄效应中,22~25岁感染率呈下降趋势,26~55岁趋于平稳,56~59岁呈现上升趋势;时期效应中,感染率一直呈下降趋势;队列效应中,趋势性不明显。结论 2010—2019年期间,新疆克拉玛依市HPV感染从年龄看呈现U型分布,<25岁以及>55岁人群为高危人群,应加强这部分人群HPV知识宣传和防控。HPV感染率整体呈下降趋势,提示宫颈癌早期筛查效果较好。Objective To analyze the situation and time trend of Human papillomavirus(HPV) infection in Karamay,Xinjiang,and to provide theoretical basis for formulating HPV prevention and control policies.Methods According to the dynamic follow-up cohort of cervical typing HPV detection in multiple units in Karamay City,Xinjiang from 2010 to 2019,chi square test was used to compare the HPV infection rate of Han and ethnic minorities.The stage trend of Han and ethnic minorities in different years and ages was analyzed based on Joinpoint regression model,and age-period-cohort model(APC) was used to explore the independent effects of age,period and birth cohort on HPV infection.Results A total of 64681 people were screened,of which the HPV infection rate was 17.51%.There was no difference in HPV infection rate between Han and ethnic minorities(χ~2=1.52,P=0.22).Joinpoint regression results showed that there was no significant difference in the overall change trend between Han and ethnic minorities in years(P=0.42),there was no turning point,and the overall trend was downward.There was no significant difference in the overall change trend of age between Han and ethnic minorities(P=0.13).There were two turning points.The turning points of Han were 26 and 51 years old,and the turning points of ethnic minorities were 25 and 55 years old,both of which showed a U-shaped distribution with high infection rate on both sides and low middle.The results of APC model showed that in the age effect,the infection rate of 22-25 years old showed a downward trend,26-55 years old tended to be stable,and 56-59 years old showed an upward trend.In the period effect,the infection rate has been declining,while the trend was not obvious in the cohort effect.Conclusion From 2010 to 2019,HPV infection in Karamay City,Xinjiang showed a U-shaped distribution in terms of age.The population <25 years old and >55 years old were high-risk groups.HPV knowledge publicity,prevention and control should be strengthened.The overall HPV infection rate shows a downwar

关 键 词：人乳头瘤病毒(HPV) Joinpoint回归模型 年龄-时期-队列模型(APC) 趋势分析 感染率 

分 类 号：R737.33[医药卫生—肿瘤]