耦合天气雷达定量降水估计与定量降水预报的中小流域洪水预报研究  

Study on Flood Forecasting of Small and Media Size Basins by Coupling Weather Radar Quantitative Precipitation Estimate and Quantitative Precipitation Forecast

作　　者：糜佳伟 田济扬[2,3] 楚志刚 刘荣华[2,3] 薛海 MI Jiawei;TIAN Jiyang;CHU Zhigang;LIU Ronghua;XUE Hai(North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power,Zhengzhou 450046,China;China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100044,China;Research Center on Flood and Drought Disaster Reduction of Ministry of Water Resources,Beijing 100044,China;Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044,China;Nanjing Shanyuyunlei Internet of Things Technology Co.,Ltd.,Nanjing 210044,China)

机构地区：[1]华北水利水电大学,河南郑州450046 [2]中国水利水电科学研究院,北京100044 [3]水利部防洪抗旱减灾工程技术研究中心,北京100044 [4]南京信息工程大学,江苏南京210044 [5]南京山禹云雷物联网科技有限公司,江苏南京210044

出　　处：《华北水利水电大学学报（自然科学版）》2022年第3期11-18,共8页Journal of North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power：Natural Science Edition

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2019YFC1510605);国家自然科学基金项目(51909274);中国水科院五大人才计划项目(JZ0199A022021)。

摘　　要：为探究天气雷达定量降水估计和定量降水预报在中小流域洪水预报中的适用性,以梅溪流域为研究区,选取2012“苏拉”、2014“海贝思”、2016“尼伯特”3场台风引发的降雨洪水过程为研究对象,采用强降水识别技术改进天气雷达定量降水估计的精度,利用光流法进行基于天气雷达的临近预报,构建了梅溪流域分布式水文模型,并耦合天气雷达定量降水估计和定量降水预报开展了洪水预报。结果表明:强降水识别能有效提升天气雷达定量降水估计的精度;对于降雨时空分布较为均匀的降雨,耦合天气雷达定量降水估计的洪水预报结果较雨量站测雨结果更具优势,耦合1 h预见期天气雷达定量降水预报结果能够满足中小流域洪水预报的需要;对于短历时强降雨和特大暴雨,受天气雷达定量降水估计和定量降水预报精度的影响,洪水预报效果较差。To investigate the applicability of weather radar quantitative precipitation estimation and quantitative precipitation forecast in small and medium size basins flood forecast, the Meixi basin was taken as the study area, and the rainfall and flood processes caused by three typhoons, namely, ″Saola″ in 2012, ″Hagibis″ in 2014 and ″Nepartak″ in 2016, were selected.The study object is to improve the accuracy of weather radar quantitative precipitation estimation by using heavy precipitation identification technology, and to construct a distributed hydrological model of the Meixi basin by using the optical flow method for weather radar based nowcasting, and coupling weather radar quantitative precipitation estimation and quantitative precipitation forecast to carry out flood forecast. The results show that heavy precipitation identification can effectively improve the accuracy of weather radar quantitative precipitation estimation, and for rainfall with more uniform spatial and temporal distribution, coupled weather radar quantitative precipitation estimation has more advantages than rainfall station rainfall measurement, coupled 1 h forecast period weather radar quantitative precipitation forecasting can meet the needs of small and medium size basin flood forecast. For short-duration heavy rainfall and very heavy rainfall, the flood forecast effect is poor due to the accuracy of weather radar quantitative precipitation estimation and quantitative precipitation forecast.

关 键 词：强降水识别 定量降水估计 光流法 中国山洪水文模型 中小流域 

分 类 号：TV877[水利工程—水利水电工程] P338[天文地球—水文科学]