黑龙江省玉米干旱与低温冷害复合发生的温水特征及产量分析  

Characteristics of Temperature and Water in Drought and Cold Damage Cross-stress of Maize and its Yield Analysis in Heilongjiang Province

作　　者：姜丽霞 李树岭[1,3] 张雪梅 曹蕾 刘艳华 闫平[2] 韩俊杰[2] 姜蓝齐[2] 初征 JIANG Lixia;LI Shuling;ZHANG Xuemei;CAO Lei;LIU Yanhua;Yan Ping;HAN Junjie;JIANG Lanqi;CHU Zheng(CMA·Henan Key Laboratory of Agrometeorological Support and Applied Technique, Zhengzhou 450003, China;Heilongjiang Province Institute of Meteorological Science, Harbin 150030, China;Harbin Meteorological Station, Harbin 1500303, China;Heilongjiang Meteorological Service Center, Harbin 150030, China)

机构地区：[1]中国气象局·河南省农业气象保障与应用技术重点实验室,郑州450003 [2]黑龙江省气象科学研究所,哈尔滨150030 [3]哈尔滨市气象台,哈尔滨150028 [4]黑龙江省气象服务中心,哈尔滨150036

出　　处：《灾害学》2022年第2期29-35,共7页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：中国气象局·河南省农业气象保障与应用技术重点实验室基金项目(AMF202105);中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2022J054,CXFZ2022P006);黑龙江省科学基金项目(LH2019D015);中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所区域合作项目(2018SYIAEHZ1)。

摘　　要：利用1981—2018年黑龙江省玉米农业气象观测站资料,基于国家气象行业标准中水分亏缺指数、≥10℃积温距平指标判识玉米出苗—乳熟期干旱、低温冷害,规定同一站同1年内干旱和低温冷害均有发生为两种灾害复合发生,以数理统计、对比分析方法分析其温水特征及玉米相对产量变化率。研究结果表明:1981—2018年间,研究区玉米出苗-乳熟期干旱和低温冷害复合发生累计110站年,各站发生3~11年,时间上呈减少趋势,1980年代为高发期,1990年代中期以后发生减少,空间上呈西多东少态势,松嫩平原西南部为多发区;玉米出苗-乳熟期干旱和低温冷害复合发生期间的温水特征总体表现为日均温非持续偏低,而呈波动-间隔式偏低,64站年发育期内50%以上时间的日均温较常年偏低,平均低温日数为54.0 d,未出现有效降水量的日数平均多达73.2 d,有效降水量大于0 mm的日数平均仅16.0 d,有效降水量少,88站年不足300 mm,大雨以上等级有效降水频次少,平均仅2.1 d;研究区93.3%站点玉米出苗-乳熟期发生干旱和低温冷害复合灾害年份与未发生复合灾害年份相比,玉米相对产量变化率均为负值,一定程度上表明干旱和低温冷害的复合发生将引起玉米单产下降。Based on the observation data from agro-meteorological stations from 1981 to 2018 in Heilongjiang province,By using the indicators of water deficiency index and accumulated temperature anomaly≥10℃from the People's Republic of China meteorological industry standards for assessment of drought and cold damage to maize during emergence-milk ripening stage separately,this paper stipulated that drought and cold damage cross-stress occurred in the same year in the same station,and the temporal and spatial distribution of temperature,water and relative yield change rate of maize were analyzed by comparative analysis and mathematical statistical method.The results showed that the sum of years of drought and cold damage cross-stress was 110 station years during maize emergence-milk ripening stage in the study area,and the sum of years was from 3 to 11 years in each station.The occurrence of drought and cold damage cross-stress decreased,and its appearance was high in 1980s and declining after Mid-1990s.The occurrence of drought and cold damage cross-stress in the west was higher than that in the east,and there were frequent drought and cold damage cross-stress in southwest Songnen plain.The daily mean temperature of drought and cold damage cross-stress year was not continuously low but fluctuating during maize emergence-milk ripening stage,and it was lower than that of perennial year in more than 50%of the development period in 64 station years,the average number of low temperature days was up to 54.0 days.The average number of days with effective precipitation of 0 mm was 73.2d,but the average number of days above 0 mm was only 16.0d,and the effective precipitation was less,which was less than 300 mm in 88 station years.The frequency of effective precipitation was less above the heavy rain grade,and the average number of precipitation days was 2.1 days.Compared with the non occurrence of drought and cold damage cross-stress,the average relative yield change rate of maize of drought and cold damage cross-stress year wa

关 键 词：玉米 干旱 低温冷害 复合发生 水分亏缺指数 ≥10℃积温距平 玉米产量 黑龙江 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] X915.5[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P49P429