区域自然灾害风险综合区划--以广东台风灾害人口与经济风险区划为例  

Comprehensive Regionalization of Natural Disaster Risk——A Case Study of Population and Economic Risk Caused by Typhoon in Guangdong Province

作　　者：余瀚 郭浩 王静爱[2,4] YU Han;GUO hao;WANG Jing’ai(Department of Natural Geography, Resources and Environment, Lanzhou University of Finance and Economics, Lanzhou 730101, China;Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875,China;College of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Zhejiang Normal University, Jinhua 321004,China;Acadmey of Plateau Science and Sustainbility, Qinghai Normal University, Xining 810008, China)

机构地区：[1]兰州财经大学农林经济管理学院自然地理与资源环境系,甘肃兰州730101 [2]北京师范大学地理科学学部,北京100875 [3]浙江师范大学地理与环境科学学院,浙江金华321004 [4]青海师范大学高原科学与可持续发展研究院,青海西宁810008

出　　处：《灾害学》2022年第2期131-137,共7页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划资助项目(2016YFA0602402);国家自然科学基金创新研究群体资助项目(41621061)。

摘　　要：针对广东台风灾害人口与经济风险,基于区域灾害系统、地域分异和自然灾害区划相关理论,从“多尺度-多要素-多情景”的角度系统性开展了区域台风灾害风险区划,构建了基于自下而上思想的G-BU-BZ定量综合区划工具,结合先验知识和广东台风风险分析结果,使用5个重现期情景(5年、10年、20年、50年、100年一遇)的分区图,以5个重现期情景下的分区方案图谱形式形成系统的综合区划方案:一级区表达宏观上台风灾害风险形成的环境分异,所有重现期情景均划分为6个区域,包括沿海平原区、粤西平原区、粤西-中部平原丘陵区、粤北-粤东山地丘陵区、粤东平原区、珠三角平原区;二级区表达台风综合致灾因子强度分异,5个重现期情景下分别划分出13、16、18、14、12个二级分区;三级分区表达综合风险分异,5个重现期情景下分别划分出55、67、68、64、51个三级分区。Under the guidance of regional disaster system theory,regional differentiation theory of natural disaster regionalization,we constructs a systematic regional typhoon disaster risk regionalization scheme using the“multi-scale,multi factor and multi scenario”method for the population and economic risk of typhoon disaster in Guangdong Province.The G-Bu-Bz quantitative comprehensive model based on the bottom-up idea is used as the basic tool of regionalization,based on the prior knowledge and the results of typhoon risk analysis,five return period scenarios(5-year,10-year,20-year,50-year and 100-year scenarios)are used to comprehensively express the regional differentiation.The zoning scheme of a single annual return period scenario expresses the risk differentiation law of a specific scenario The first level region expresses the macro environmental differentiation,which is consistent in all return period scenarios.It is divided into six regions,including coastal plain region,West Guangdong plain region,West Guangdong-central plain hilly region,North-East Guangdong hilly region,East Guangdong plain region,Pearl River delta plain region;The second level area expresses the intensity differentiation of comprehensive typhoon hazards.Under the five return period scenarios,it is divided into 13,16,18,14 and 12 sub areas respectively;the third level partition expresses the comprehensive risk differentiation,and 55,67,68,64 and 51 three-level partitions are divided respectively under the five return period scenarios.

关 键 词：风险综合区划 台风灾害 人口与经济风险 多情景区划 广东省 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] X915.5[天文地球—自然地理学] P954