基于换道概率分布的多车道交织区元胞自动机模型  

Cellular Automata Model of Multi-lane Weaving Area Based on Lane-changing Probability Distribution

作　　者：谢济铭 彭博[2] 秦雅琴[1] XIE Ji-ming;PENG Bo;QIN Ya-qin(Faculty of Transportation Engineering,Kunming University of Science and Technology,Kunming 650500,China;College of Traffic and Transportation,Chongqing Jiaotong University,Chongqing 400074,China)

机构地区：[1]昆明理工大学,交通工程学院,昆明650500 [2]重庆交通大学,交通运输学院,重庆400074

出　　处：《交通运输系统工程与信息》2022年第3期276-285,共10页Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71861016, 61703064);国家重点研发计划(2018YFB1600500)。

摘　　要：交织区是快速路系统的重要组成部分,由于车辆频繁换道、相互作用复杂,容易造成交通瓶颈。本文提取城市多车道交织区时间分辨率为0.1 s、空间分辨率为0.1 m·px^(-1)的高精度车辆轨迹,分析交织区及相邻路段的交通流和车辆行为特性,提出分区元胞自动机模型。在上游和下游换道模型中,建立基于速度差、车辆间距的换道动机规则、间距规则及Logistic换道概率规则。对于交织影响区,建立考虑速度、间距及路径转换需求的换道动机规则,根据安全风险构建换道时机的多步决策规则,提出基于换道频率Gaussian分布模型的换道概率规则,并对主要参数进行灵敏度仿真测试分析,模型具备评估交织区不同换道状态的实际应用潜力。仿真与实测显示,本文模型流量、速度、密度及换道分布等特性与实际相符,能有效反映车辆在不同位置的换道需求与强度差异性,刻画多车道交织区复杂的换道行为。The interweaving area is an important part of the expressway system,which is prone to cause traffic bottlenecks due to frequent vehicle lane changes and complex interactions.In this paper,we extract high precision vehicle trajectories with a time resolution of 0.1 s and a spatial resolution of 0.1 m·px^(-1)in an urban multi-lane interweaving area,then analyze the traffic flow and vehicle behavior characteristics in the interweaving area and adjacent road sections and propose a partitioned cellular automata model.In the upstream and downstream lane change models,the lane change motivation rule,spacing rule,and logistic lane change probability rule based on speed difference and vehicle spacing are established.For the interweaving influence zone,the lane change motivation rules are established considering speed,spacing,and path transition requirements,multi-step decision rules for lane change timing are constructed based on safety risks,and lane change probability rules are proposed based on the Gaussian distribution model of lane change frequency.The sensitivity simulation tests are conducted to analyze the key parameters,which show that the model has the potential for practical application in evaluating different lane change states in the interweaving area.Simulation and actual measurement show that the characteristics of flow,speed,and density,and lane change distribution of the model are consistent with the reality,which can effectively reflect the lane change demand and intensity variability of vehicles at different locations and portray the complex following and lane change behaviors in multi-lane interweaving areas.

关 键 词：智能交通 换道决策 元胞自动机 多车道交织区 微观轨迹数据 

分 类 号：U491.1[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]