“一带一路”沿线国家的环境风险评价及治理政策研究  

Study on the Environmental Risk Assessment and Governance Policies of Countries along the “Belt and Road”

作　　者：张成岗 王明玉 ZHANG Chenggang;WANG Mingyu(School of Social Sciences y Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China)

机构地区：[1]清华大学社会科学学院,北京100084

出　　处：《中国软科学》2022年第4期1-10,34,共11页China Soft Science

基　　金：国家社科基金重大研究专项项目“一带一路”建设面临的主要风险及应对研究(18VDL015)。

摘　　要：2020年新冠肺炎疫情席卷全球,“双循环”新格局推动“一带一路”倡议进入新的发展阶段。在疫情影响下,各国纷纷重视自然环境保护和可持续发展。“一带一路”倡议作为国际合作交流平台,更应该重视环境风险的识别与治理。本文构建环境风险评估指标体系,采用因子分析和聚类分析方法,对“一带一路”沿线六大经济走廊63个样本国家的环境风险类型进行实证分析。研究结果表明:(1)能源依赖程度、环境友好水平、生态可持续性、受众脆弱程度和能源利用效度是环境风险的影响因素;(2)“一带一路”沿线国家的环境风险表现为“能源富余型”“资源紧凑型”“环境非可持续型”“环境保护型”和“环境粗放型”5种类型;(3)六大经济走廊的环境风险类型具有差异性。在环境治理中需要分廊、分类型制定环境治理策略,提升经济投资和政策的针对性。未来研究应从全球和区域两个角度把握“一带一路”的环境风险类型,积极为实现联合国2030年可持续发展目标贡献中国力量。COVID-19 pandemic has significantly impacted the global economy in 2020. The new “dual cycle” pattern pushes the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI) into a new stage of development. Under the influence of the pandemic, many countries attach increasing importance to the protection of natural environment and sustainable development. BRI, as a platform for international cooperation and exchanges, should pay more attention to the identification and governance of environmental risks. Using factor analysis and cluster analysis, this paper constructs an index system of environmental risk assessment. Six economic corridors, and 63 sample countries, are used to analyze the environmental risk types. The results show that:(1) Factors of environmental risk include levels of energy dependence, environmental friendliness, ecological sustainability, vulnerability of the audience and energy utilization validity;(2)The environmental risks of BRI countries can be categorized into five types, namely as “energy surplus”, “resource compact”, “unsustainable environment”, “protective environment” and “extensive environment”;(3) The environmental risk types of the six economic corridors are distinct. Therefore, it is necessary to formulate environmental governance strategies according to different geographies and risk types, so as to improve the pertinence of economic investment and policies. Future research of global and regional relevance should take into the account of these environmental risk types of BRI countries to help realize the UN 2030 sustainable development goals(SDGs).

关 键 词：“一带一路”倡议 六大经济走廊 环境风险类型 环境风险治理 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]