近15年广州市社会经济发展与环境质量关系研究  

作　　者：王剑斌 欧可仪 王小琳 赖迪智 

机构地区：[1]广东省广州生态环境监测中心站,广东广州510006 [2]珠江流域水环境监测中心,广东广州510611

出　　处：《环境保护与循环经济》2022年第4期86-94,共9页environmental protection and circular economy

摘　　要：以环境库兹涅茨曲线模型为理论基础,引用广州市2005—2019年共15年的社会经济数据和环境指标数据,通过主成分分析法选取人均GDP为经济指标,二氧化硫排放量、废水排放量为环境指标,分析广州市经济增长与环境污染治理现状,建立了相应的拟合模型。同时选取煤炭消耗总量、绿地面积、大气环境指标、水环境指标等多项指标进行辅助分析和预测。研究表明,广州市近15年二氧化硫排放量的对数、废水排放量的对数与人均GDP的对数之间符合倒“N”型关系,但大气污染和水污染治理并不同步。通过模型作出预测,广州市人均GDP将保持约4%的年均增长率,至2025年,广州市人均GDP可达198 000元;煤炭消耗总量已达峰并在“十四五”时期内持续下降;污染物排放量将大幅下降,城市环境空气质量和地表水环境质量将持续改善。The study based on the Environmental Kutznets Curve model as theoretical basis,according to social and the economic data and environmental index data of Guangzhou from 2005 to 2019,selected GDP per capita as the economic index and SO;emissions and total waste water emissions as the environmental index through principa component analysis method,to analyze the present situation of economic growth and environmental pollution control in Guangzhou,and established the corresponding model.The total coal consumption,green space area,atmospheric environmental indicators,water environmental indicators and other indicators are selected for auxiliary analysis and prediction at the same time.The study shows that the logarithm of SO;emissions and logarithm of total waste water emissions are both in an inverted“N”type relationship with logarithm of GDP per capita,but the control of air pollution and water pollution are not synchronize with each other.It is predicted that the GDP per capita of Guangzhou will maintain an average annual growth rate of about 4%and GDP per capita of Guangzhou can reach 198 000yuan/person at 2025.The total coal consumption has reached its peak and continued to decline during the“14;five year plan”period.Pollutant discharge amount will be declined substantially,and the quality of the air and surface water of urban environment will be improved continuously.

关 键 词：环境库兹涅茨曲线 社会经济发展 二氧化硫排放量 废水排放量 预测 广州市 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]