兰州市冬季空气污染对哮喘的影响  

Effects of air pollution in winter on asthma in Lanzhou

作　　者：李龙燕 王金艳[1] 谢祥珊 陈金车 LI Longyan;WANG Jinyan;XIE Xiangshan;CHEN Jinche(College of Atmospheric Sciences,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730000,China;Ningxia Meteorological Disaster Prevention Technology Center,Yinchuan 750000,China)

机构地区：[1]兰州大学大气科学学院,甘肃兰州730000 [2]宁夏回族自治区气象灾害防御技术中心,宁夏银川750000

出　　处：《环境保护科学》2022年第3期94-98,共5页Environmental Protection Science

基　　金：甘肃省自然科学基金(21JR7RA501);国家重点研发计划项目(2020YFA0608402)。

摘　　要：基于2014~2017年兰州市冬季空气污染物浓度数据、气象数据及3家三甲医院哮喘门诊资料,在控制长期趋势、节假日效应、星期几效应和气象要素等混杂因素的基础上,利用广义相加模型定量评价兰州市冬季大气污染物质量浓度变化对哮喘日就诊人次的影响。结果表明:SO_(2)累积滞后2 d、NO_(2)累积滞后5 d对哮喘门诊患者的影响最大,且浓度每增加10μg/m^(3),相对危险度分别增加4.1%和3.3%,且最敏感滞后时间下,污染物与哮喘患者的暴露-反应关系呈波动上升趋势。双污染模型中,SO_(2)对哮喘门诊发病总人次影响在0 d达到最大,哮喘发病增加3.9%,滞后时间提前,发病风险降低;NO_(2)哮喘发病增加4.6%,滞后时间不变,但发病风险升高。单污染模型中SO_(2)对女性和成年患病相对风险更高,NO_(2)对女性和儿童患病相对风险更高,双污染模型中SO_(2)和NO_(2)对女性和儿童的相对风险更高。According to the air pollutant concentration data in winter,meteorological data and asthma outpatient data of 3 Grade A class three hospitals in Lanzhou from 2014 to 2017,based on controlling the long-term trends of the time,holiday effects,day of the week effects and meteorological elements,the generalized additive model was performed to quantitatively evaluate the relationship between the changes on air pollutant mass concentration and the number of asthma daily visits.Results showed that when the pollutant concentration increased by an 10μg/m^(3),SO_(2) on lag02 days and the NO_(2) on lag05 days,it had the greatest impact on asthma patients.The number of patients with asthma increased by 4.1%and 3.3%.Under the optimal lag time condition,the relationship between pollutants and the asthma patients showed a fluctuating upward trend.In the dual-pollution model,the impact of SO_(2) on the total incidence of asthma reached the maximum at 0 d,the incidence increased by 3.9%with an earlier lag time,while the risk of incidence was reduced.The incidence of NO_(2) asthma increased by 4.6%with a stable lag time,while the risk of incidence increased.In the single-pollution model,SO_(2) had a higher relative risk to women and adults,and NO_(2) had a higher relative risk to women and children.However,in the dual-pollution model,both SO_(2) and NO_(2) had a relative higher risk to women and children.

关 键 词：兰州市 空气污染 哮喘 广义相加模型 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]