不同方法下水产品冷链物流需求量预测精度对比分析  

Comparative analysis on forecasting accuracy of cold chain logistics demand of aquatic products by different methods

作　　者：李玉峰[1] 谌丽 代田莉 徐璞[1] LI Yu-feng;SHEN Li;DAI Tian-li;XU-Pu(College of Economics and Management,Shanghai Ocean University,Shanghai 201306,China)

机构地区：[1]上海海洋大学经济管理学院,上海201306

出　　处：《中国渔业经济》2022年第2期91-98,共8页Chinese Fisheries Economics

基　　金：上海市哲学社会科学规划项目“乡村振兴战略下生鲜农产品智慧零售商业模式研究”(2018BGL015)项目资助。

摘　　要：水产品是我国重要的农业资源,冷链物流是水产品可持续发展的重要保障,精准预测水产品冷链物流需求量对资源的合理配置与保障水产品安全供给有着重要的现实意义。文章采用二次指数平滑法、RBF神经网络模型、多元线性回归模型、GM(1,1)模型分别对水产品冷链物流需求量进行预测,并利用残差平方和与相对误差平均值评价其预测精度。研究发现:利用二次指数平滑法预测的水产品冷链物流需求量精度最高,其预测结果更具有参考价值。Aquatic products are important agricultural resources in China,and cold chain logistics is an important guarantee for the sustainable development of aquatic products.Accurate prediction of the demand for cold chain logistics of aquatic products has important practical significance for the rational allocation of resources and the protection of the safe supply of aquatic products.In this paper,quadratic exponential smoothing method,RBF neural network model,multiple linear regression model and GM(1,1)model are used to predict the demand of aquatic products cold chain logistics respectively,and the prediction accuracy is evaluated by the sum of squares of residuals and the average value of relative error.The results show that the accuracy of cold chain logistics demand of aquatic products predicted by quadratic exponential smoothing method is the highest,and the prediction results have more reference value.

关 键 词：水产品 冷链物流 需求预测 精度分析 

分 类 号：F326.416[经济管理—产业经济]