复合泊松过程在新疆地震研究中的应用  

The Application of Compound Poisson Process in the Study of Xinjiang Earthquake

作　　者：卢芸潇 刘淼 Lu Yunxiao;Liu Miao(College of Mathematics and Statistic,Yili Normal University,Yining,Xinjiang 835000,China;Institute of Applied Mathematics,Yili Normal University,Yining,Xinjiang 835000,China)

机构地区：[1]伊犁师范大学数学与统计学院,新疆伊宁835000 [2]伊犁师范大学应用数学研究所,新疆伊宁835000

出　　处：《伊犁师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2022年第1期22-28,共7页Journal of Yili Normal University：Natural Science Edition

基　　金：新疆维吾尔自治区自然科学基金项目(2021D01C462).

摘　　要：根据2005~2018年新疆68次5级以上的地震数据,通过泊松过程描述了地震的发生,利用复合泊松过程得出14年间新疆地震造成的经济损失的期望值,在计算新疆地震重复周期的基础上,对未来一定时期内新疆地震的复发概率做了科学预测,得到新疆地区在未来10年间的地震复发概率.结果表明,5.5级地震的重现期约为每年3次.According to Xinjiang from 2005 to 2018,68 times above magnitude 5 earthquake data,description of the earthquake by poisson process,using the compound poisson process 14 years expected for the economic loss caused by the earthquake in Xinjiang,on the basis of the calculation of Xinjiang earthquake repetition period,a certain period of time in the future earthquake recurrence probability made scientific prediction of Xinjiang,the probability of earthquake recurrence in Xinjiang region in the next 10 years is obtained.The results show that the recurrence period of magnitude 5.5 earthquakes is about 3 times per year.

关 键 词：新疆 地震 复合泊松过程 

分 类 号：O211.6[理学—概率论与数理统计]