高原地区翼状胬肉相关危险因素分析及预测模型的建立  

Analysis of risk factors related to pterygium and establishment of prediction model in plateau area

作　　者：张晓英[1] 晏鑫 关瑞娟[1] 李凌[1] Xiao-Ying Zhang;Xin Yan;Rui-Juan Guan;Ling Li(Department of Ophthalmology,Qinghai Provincial People s Hospital,Xining 810000,Qinghai Province,China;Eye Hospital of China Academy of Chinese Medical Sciences,Beijing 100000,China)

机构地区：[1]青海省人民医院眼科,中国青海省西宁市810000 [2]中国中医科学院眼科医院,中国北京市100000

出　　处：《国际眼科杂志》2022年第7期1215-1219,共5页International Eye Science

基　　金：青海省卫健委指导性科研课题(No.2019-wjzdx-36)。

摘　　要：目的:分析高原地区翼状胬肉的相关危险因素并建立预测模型。方法:采用整群随机抽样的方法,于2020-06/2021-06选择居住在高原平均海拔3000m地区的长住居民进行翼状胬肉的现场调查。使用单因素及多因素分析翼状胬肉相关危险因素分析,并采用R软件建立预测模型。结果:本研究实际调查人数为1514人,翼状胬肉患者为210人,总体患病率为13.87%。年龄>43岁、高原地区居住年限、日照时间、性别、吸烟史、饮酒史、高血压、糖尿病、高血脂是翼状胬肉的危险因素。其中长时间日照是翼状胬肉最危险的因素(OR:6.215,95%CI:4.008~9.636,P<0.001);其次是年龄>43岁(OR:5.348,95%CI:2.06~13.88,P=0.001)。决策曲线(DCA)表明,当应用诺莫评分体系时,预测翼状胬肉的几率和实际发生翼状胬肉的几率完全吻合。结论:年龄>43岁、高原地区居住年限、日照时间、性别、吸烟史、饮酒史、高血压、糖尿病、高血脂是翼状胬肉的危险因素。诺莫评分体系预测模型可以对翼状胬肉精准预测,为高原地区干预翼状胬肉提供一定的理论依据。AIM:To analyze the risk factors related to pterygium in plateau area and establish a prediction model.METHODS:Using the method of cluster random sampling,the long-term residents living in the plateau with an average altitude of 3000m were selected to conduct a field survey of pterygium from June 2020 to June 2021.Single factor and multi-factor analysis were used to analyze the risk factors related to pterygium,and the R software was used to establish the prediction model.RESULTS:The actual number of people investigated in this study was 1514,and the number of patients with pterygium was 210,the overall prevalence rate was 13.87%.The age>43 years old,plateau area residence history,sunshine time,gender,smoking history,drinking history,hypertension,diabetes and hyperlipidemia are risk factors for pterygium.Among them,the long-term sunshine was the most dangerous factor for pterygium(OR:6.215,95%CI:4.008-9.636,P<0.001),followed by>43 years old(OR:5.348,95%CI:2.06-13.88,P=0.001).The decision curve analysis(DCA)showed that when the Nomo score system was applied,the predicted probability of pterygium was completely consistent with the actual probability of pterygium.CONCLUSION:The risk factors of pterygium as follows,the age>43 years old,plateau area residence history,sunshine time,gender,smoking history,drinking history,hypertension,diabetes and hyperlipidemia.The Nomo scoring system prediction model can accurately predict pterygium and provide a theoretical basis for the intervention of pterygium in plateau areas.

关 键 词：高原地区 翼状胬肉 患病率 危险因素 预测模型 

分 类 号：R777.33[医药卫生—眼科]