欧美猪周期比较研究及其应对措施启示  

Comparative study of European and American hog cycle and enlightenment of countermeasures

作　　者：朱增勇 马佳[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国农业科学院北京畜牧兽医研究所 [2]上海市农业科学院农业科技信息研究所

出　　处：《价格理论与实践》2022年第2期84-90,共7页Price:Theory & Practice

基　　金：中央农办软科学课题(RKX202010A);国家自然科学基金面上项目(72073131)。

摘　　要：缓解猪周期生猪生产和猪价过度波动对实现稳产保供、实现产业持续健康发展具有重要意义。通过比较中国、美国、德国猪周期的特点、影响因素及调控政策,研究发现:美国和德国猪肉价格周期呈现延长且趋同的特点,德国波动幅度较小,美国低于我国但其波幅仍然较大;美国生猪产业体系高度垂直整合,基于猪周期的生产/销售合同的普及减缓猪价波动对生产的影响。德国呈现适度规模、营销体系多样化和区域化分工的特点,对外贸易成为调节猪周期的主要因素;金融信贷、环境保护项目、生猪价格/收入保险等中长期调控政策发挥了稳定生产、提升产业竞争力的作用,收储、贸易干预等市场调控政策防止猪价过度下跌。基于以上结论,本文提出:根据猪周期特点建立猪肉产业链上下游主体的利益共享机制,我国应加强中小规模户融资和风险防控体系保障以促进中小规模养殖户转型升级,基于供需形势变动实施产业和市场调控政策,结合冻猪肉储备和猪肉进口监测等市场短期调控,防止猪价周期性过度波动,促进生猪产业持续健康发展。Alleviating the excessive fluctuation of pork production and hog prices in the hog cycle is of great significance to achieve stable production and supply.By comparing the characteristics,influencing factors and regulatory policies of hog cycles in China,the study found that the hog price cycles in the United States and Germany are prolonged and convergent,and the fluctuation of hog price in U.S.is lower than that in China,but the fluctuation is still large.In the U.S.hog industry system,the popularity of production and sales contracts based on the hog cycle can mitigates the impact of hog price fluctuations on production.Germany is characterized by moderate scale,diversified marketing system and regional division of labor.Foreign trade has become the main factor to adjust the hog cycle.Medium-and long-term policies such as financial credit,environmental protection projects,and insurance have played a role in improving the industry.Based on the above conclusions,this paper proposes:According to the characteristics of the hog cycle,a benefit-sharing mechanism should be established for the upstream and downstream entities of the pork industry chain.China should strengthen financing and risk prevention and control system for small and medium-sized farmers to promote the transformation and upgrading of small and medium-sized farmers.Based on the change of supply and demand situation,China should use short-term market regulation such as frozen pork reserve and pork import monitoring to prevent the periodic excessive fluctuation of hog price and promote the sustainable and healthy development of pig industry.

关 键 词：生猪生产周期 生猪价格周期 猪肉产业链 短期市场调控 

分 类 号：F326.3[经济管理—产业经济] F371.2F351.6