基于Ordered Probit模型的重着陆严重性影响因素分析  

Analysis of the Factors Affecting the Severity of Heavy Landing Events Based on Ordered Probit Model

作　　者：杨晶晶 王永刚 YANG Jingjing;WANG Yonggang(Academy of Safety Science and Engineering,Civil Aviation University of China,Tianjin 300300,China;Safety Division,Civil Aviation University of China,Tianjin 300300,China)

机构地区：[1]中国民航大学安全科学与工程学院,天津300300 [2]中国民航大学安全学部,天津300300

出　　处：《综合运输》2022年第6期64-69,109,共7页China Transportation Review

摘　　要：为有效降低重着陆事件的严重性,提高安全管理效率,分析各因素对重着陆事件严重程度的影响规律至关重要。通过文献参考及对S航空公司自愿上报系统中254件重着陆报告的致因关键词提取,从人、机、环三方面构建了重着陆事件严重性影响因素体系;运用Ordered Probit模型对重着陆事件严重性的各影响因素进行了参数估计及回归分析,采用向后删除变量法筛选了显著影响因素,并通过了似然比检验。研究结果表明:松杆时机不准确、拉杆量不恰当主要影响等级为一的重着陆事件;教员放手量大、接管时机和方法不恰当主要影响等级为二的重着陆事件;着陆技能不熟练、注意力单一、能见度低、风向风速变化主要影响等级为三的重着陆事件。In order to effectively reduce the severity of heavy landing incidents and improve the efficiency of safety management, a system of factors affecting the severity of heavy landing incidents was constructed from three aspects of human, aircraft and environment by reference literature and extraction of the causation keywords of 254 heavy landing reports from S Airlines’ voluntary reporting system. The Ordered Probit model was used to conduct parameter estimation and regression analysis on the influencing factors of the severity of heavy landing events, and the backward-deleting variable method was used to screen the significant influencing factors, and the likelihood ratio test was passed. It is found that the influence regularity of heavy landing event severity is that the timing of loose rod is not accurate, the amount of pull rod is not appropriate, and the attention level is one. Large amount of teacher letting go, improper timing and methods of taking over the main impact of the second level of heavy landing events. Unskilled landing skills, poor visibility, wind direction and wind speed changes are the main impact level of three heavy landing events.

关 键 词：着陆安全 重着陆 Ordered Probit模型 影响因素 安全管理 

分 类 号：V323[航空宇航科学与技术—人机与环境工程] X949[环境科学与工程—安全科学]