人口结构对大中城市住房价格指数的影响研究  

Study on the Influence of Population Structure on Urban Housing Price Index

作　　者：龙腾 万勇[1] LONG Teng;WAN Yong(Institute of Applied Economics,Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences,Shanghai 200020,China)

机构地区：[1]上海社会科学院应用经济研究所,上海200020

出　　处：《建筑经济》2022年第6期83-90,共8页Construction Economy

基　　金：国家社科基金重点项目“中国沿海口岸城市功能区时空演进研究”(19AZS018)。

摘　　要：城市人口结构影响住房需求。研究利用我国70个城市的横截面数据,发现:(1)大中城市近十年人口城镇化有效带动住房需求,在流动人口、家庭规模、人口城镇化率、受教育程度提升等方面均有表现,并促进住房价格上涨。(2)研究理论分析了“人口老龄化是否支持住房价格上涨”要根据住房有效需求来判断,横截面数据表明城市的人口老龄化程度与住房价格成反比,老龄化程度越高的城市住房价格越低。(3)中心与非中心城市住房价格受影响表现出差异性,人均GDP对于中心城市住房价格影响更大。(4)新建与存量住房价格表现也有差异性,人均GDP、人口流动、受教育程度提升等因素对存量住房价格促进更明显。研究还提出了调整住房发展策略等政策建议。It has an effect on housing demand for urban population structure.Using cross-sectional data from 70 cities,the research finds that:(1)Population urbanization in large and medium-sized cities in the past decade can effectively drive housing demand,which is reflected in the floating population,family size,population urbanization rate and the improvement of education.It finally promotes the rise of housing prices.(2)According to the effective demand for housing,it could be judged whether the population aging supports the rise of housing prices.The cross-sectional data show that the degree of population aging in cities is inversely proportional to the housing prices.The higher the degree of aging,the lower the housing prices is.(3)There are differences between central and non central cities.Per capita GDP has a greater impact on housing prices in central cities than non central cities.(4)There are also differences in the promotion of new and stock housing prices.Some factors have more obvious promotion on stock housing prices,such as per capita GDP,population mobility and improvement of education level.Based on the conclusion,the study puts forward policy suggestions such as adjusting housing development strategies.

关 键 词：住房价格指数 人口结构 大中城市 

分 类 号：F426.9[经济管理—产业经济]