煤层气项目经济评价理论与方法研究进展  

Research progress in economic evaluation theories and methods of CBM projects

作　　者：杨永国[1,2] 李映洁[1,2] 秦勇[1,2] YANG Yongguo;LI Yingjie;QIN Yong(Key Laboratory of Coalbed Methane Resources and Reservoir Formation Process of Ministry of Education//China University of Mining and Technology,Xuzhou,Jiangsu 221008,China;School of Resources and Geosciences,China University of Mining and Technology,Xuzhou,Jiangsu 221008,China)

机构地区：[1]中国矿业大学煤层气资源与成藏过程教育部重点实验室,江苏省221008 [2]中国矿业大学资源与地球科学学院

出　　处：《天然气工业》2022年第6期186-192,共7页Natural Gas Industry

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“煤系‘三气’共采经济性组合优化模型及决策支持系统研究”(编号:41872248);“煤层气项目全生命周期风险动态演变机理及控制方法研究”(编号:41672324)。

摘　　要：加大煤层气资源的勘探开发,在缓解我国清洁能源短缺困境、控制碳排放、加强煤矿生产安全等多个方面都具有重要的意义。然而我国煤层气项目的经济效益普遍不理想,合理地开展相关项目的经济评价是保障煤层气产业下一步快速发展的重要前提。为此,在系统梳理国内外煤层气项目经济评价研究历程的基础上,基于中国知网(CNKI)期刊库数据,探讨了煤层气项目经济评价领域知识图谱的结构与演进趋势,并提出了深化研究建议。研究结果表明:①随着煤层气资源评价的广泛开展以及煤层气产业的形成,煤层气项目经济评价理论与方法研究相继开展:从煤层气项目投入产出角度出发,到定量与定性相结合方法应用到煤层气项目的经济评价,为投资决策提供可靠的科学依据;②煤层气项目经济评价方法主要有贴现现金流法、实物期权法、定量与定性相结合方法等,各个方法在不同场景下的应用均有其自身的特点和局限性;③煤层气项目经济评价目前面临4个方面的新需求:加强跨界合作、完善评价方法、综合考虑评价动态性、提高产能预测可靠性等,这是本领域深化研究的重要方向。结论认为,我国煤层气产业的进一步发展,对煤层气项目经济评价提出了更高的要求,基于煤层气资源特点与开发规律开展煤层气项目经济评价,可以减少或规避投资风险,提高开发经济效益。Enhancing the exploration and development of coalbed methane(CBM)resources is of great significance to alleviating the shortage of clean energy,control carbon emission and strengthen coal mine production safety in China.However,the economic benefit of CBM industry in China is generally not satisfying,so reasonable economic evaluation of relevant projects is the important precondition to guarantee the rapid development of CBM industry in the following step.After systematically reviewing domestic and foreign research progress in CBM project economic evaluation,this paper discusses the structure and evolution trend of knowledge graph in the field of CBM project economic evaluation based on the journal database of China National Knowledge Internet(CNKI)and then makes suggestions for further research.And the following research results are obtained.First,with the extensive implementation of CBM resource evaluation and the formation of CBM industry,investment decision making is supplied with a reliable scientific basis in terms of CBM input and output,combined quantitative and qualitative method and CBM projecte conomic evaluation.Second,the economic evaluation methods of CBM project mainly include discounted cash flow approach,real option method and combined quantitative and qualitative method,each of which has its own advantages and disadvantages during its application in different scenarios.Third,CBM project economic evaluation currently faces four new needs,including improving the reliability of productivity prediction,considering the dynamic nature of evaluation comprehensively,completing evaluation methods and strengthening cross-border cooperation,which are the main direction of further research in this field.In conclusion,further development of CBM industry in China has put forward higher requirements for CBM project economic evaluation.What's more,CBM project economic evaluation based on the characteristics and development laws of CBM resources can reduce or avoid investment risks and improve development econom

关 键 词：煤层气开发 经济评价方法 文献计量学 可视化分析 发展趋势 对策建议 

分 类 号：F426.22[经济管理—产业经济] F272.5