区域气候变化下洞里萨湖表面水温时空变化的归因  

Determining Factors in Spatio-temporal Variation of the Tonle Sap Lake’s Surface Water Temperature Under Regional Climate Change

作　　者：潘梅娥 杨昆[1,2] 邹天乐[1] 孙润 张锡花 张煜 Pan Meie;Yang Kun;Zou Tianle;Sun Run;Zhang Xihua;Zhang Yu(Faculty of Geograghy,Yunnan Normal University,Kunming 650500,Yunnan,China;The Engineering Research Center of GIS Technology in Western China,Ministry of Education,Kunming 650500,Yunnan,China)

机构地区：[1]云南师范大学地理学部,云南昆明650500 [2]西部资源环境地理信息技术教育部工程研究中心,云南昆明650500

出　　处：《地理科学》2022年第4期739-750,共12页Scientia Geographica Sinica

基　　金：国家863计划(2012AA121402);国家自然科学基金项目(41761084)资助。

摘　　要：基于2001—2019年洞里萨湖白天的湖泊表面水温(LSWT_(day))、近地表气温(AT)、太阳辐射(SR)、地表气压(SP)、降水量(TP)、相对湿度(RH)、风速(WS)、总云量(TCC)以及水位(WL)数据,采用趋势分析、稳定性分析、持续性分析和突变分析等方法,研究了LSWT_(day)及各气候因素的时空分布及变化特征;利用相关性分析、回归分析和Z-Score标准化方法,厘清了各气候因素变化对LSWT_(day)的影响。结果表明:(1)时间尺度上,区域气候以AT、WS、TCC显著升高,WL显著下降为主要特征;LSWT_(day)的平均升温速率为0.372℃/10a,且具有持续变暖趋势,与气候因素的突变点具有时间一致性。空间尺度上,LSWT_(day)和各气候因素的空间分布及变化趋势具有明显的空间异质性。其中,LSWT_(day)除西部湖区有微小降温外,其余湖区表现出明显的升温趋势。气候因素中,AT、SP、TP、TCC和RH的变化率大致呈现为南高值北低值的分布,而SR和WS的变化率分布为南低值北高值。(2)不同时间尺度上,驱动洞里萨湖LSWT_(day)变化的气候因素不同。年均尺度上,LSWT_(day)主要受到AT、WS和WL的驱动;月均尺度上,AT变化仍是驱动LSWT_(day)变化的主要因素;季节尺度上,TP、WL和TCC升高为春夏LSWT_(day)降温的主要原因,RH是秋季LSWT_(day)波动的主要影响因素,冬季LSWT_(day)随同AT的升温而变暖。Lake surface water temperature(LSWT) is an important factor affecting the aquatic ecosystem.This study aimed to reveal the influence of regional climate change on the surface water temperature of Tonle Sap Lake.For this purpose,based on the datasets of the Tonle Sap Lake ’s daytime surface water temperature(LSWT_(day)),near-surface atmospheric temperature(AT),solar radiation(SR),surface pressure(SP),total precipitation(TP),relative humidity(RH),wind speed(WS),total cloud cover(TCC) and water level(WL) from2001 to 2019,the temporal-spatial distribution and variation characteristics of LSWT_(day) and climate factors were studied by trend analysis,stability analysis,persistence analysis and mutation analysis.Then,through correlation analysis,regression analysis and Z-score standardization method,the impact of climate factors on LSWT_(day) was clarified.Results showed that:1) At the time scale,the Tonle Sap Lake region climate was characterized by a significant increase in AT,WS and TCC,and a significant decrease in WL.The average warming rate of LSWT_(day) was 0.372℃/10 a,and showed a continuous warming trend.LSWT_(day) had time consistency with the abrupt change point of climatic factors.At the spatial scale,the spatial distribution and change trend of LSWT_(day) and climate factors had obvious spatial heterogeneity.Among them,except for the slight cooling trend in the western lake area,the LSWT_(day) of other lake areas showed an obvious warming trend.Among climatic factors,the distribution of the rate of change of AT,SP,TP,TCC,and RH was roughly high values in the south and low values in the north,while the distribution of change rates of SR and WS was low in the south and high in the north.2) In different time scales,the factors driving LSWT_(day) change were different.On the average annual scale,LSWT_(day) was mainly driven by AT,WS and WL.At the monthly mean scale,the change of AT was still the main driving factor of LSWT_(day).At the seasonal scale,the increase of TP,WL and TCC was the main reason for the

关 键 词：湖泊表面水温 气候因素 洞里萨湖 MODIS 

分 类 号：K909[历史地理—人文地理学]