考虑驾驶员有限理性下信号交叉口车速引导模型  

A Speed Guidance Model Accounting for the Driver’s Bounded Rationality at Signalized Intersection

作　　者：李振龙 杨磊 张靖思 董爱华 LI Zhen-long;YANG Lei;ZHANG Jing-si;DONG Ai-hua(Beijing Key Laboratory of Transportation Engineering, College of Metropolitan Transportation, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124, China)

机构地区：[1]北京工业大学城市交通学院北京市交通工程重点实验室,北京100124

出　　处：《科学技术与工程》2022年第16期6728-6733,共6页Science Technology and Engineering

基　　金：北京市交通行业科技项目(2021-kjc-02-130)。

摘　　要：为突破车速引导模型中驾驶员完全遵从引导速度的理想假设,提出了有限理性下的车速引导模型。针对驾驶员对系统给出引导速度决策时的非完全理性行为,首先建立了有限理性二项LOGIT决策模型,利用问卷调查数据对模型进行标定,得到了驾驶员有限理性的决策依据:当遵从引导速度与不遵从引导速度的效用差明显时(大于效用阈值),驾驶员可以进行理性决策,实现效用最大化;当效用差不明显时(小于效用阈值),驾驶员将根据自身偏好随机进行有限理性决策。然后将上述有限理性决策依据融入信号交叉口车速引导中,建立了考虑驾驶员有限理性下的车速引导模型,与传统车速引导模型和无车速引导模型进行了仿真对比。传统车速引导和有限理性车速引导下车辆的平均通行时间较无车速引导分别增加6.5%和6.0%,CO_(2)每公里排放量分别下降23.1%和19.2%。结果表明:有限理性模型和传统模型均能降低污染物排放,但有限理性模型的改善效果低于传统模型,原因是考虑了驾驶员在当前速度和引导速度博弈决策中的有限理性,这种考虑实际情况的模型可为车速引导系统的实际应用提供参考。In order to break through the ideal assumption that the driver fully follow the guidance speed in the speed guidance models,a speed guidance model under driver’s bounded rationality was proposed.Aiming at the driver’s incomplete rational behavior when following the guidance speed given by the system,a bounded rational binary LOGIT model was established,and the model was calibrated by using the questionnaire data.The driver’s bounded rationality basis of decision making is that when the utility difference between following the guidance speed and not following the guidance speed is obvious(greater than the utility threshold),the driver can make rational decision to maximize the utility,and when the utility difference is not obvious(less than the utility threshold),the driver makes bounded rational decision randomly according to own preference.The bounded rationality basis of decision making was integrated into the speed guidance model at signalized intersection to establish a speed guidance model accounting for the driver’s bounded rationality.The model was simulated and compared with the traditional speed guidance model and the no speed guidance model.Simulation results indicate that the average travel time of vehicles under traditional speed guidance model and bounded rational speed guidance model increase by 5.5%and 5.6%,and CO_(2) emission per kilometer is reduced by 23.1%and 19.2%.The results indicate that both the bounded rationality model and the traditional model can decrease emissions,but the improvement of the bounded rationality model is lower than the traditional model.The reason is that the model takes into account the driver’s bounded rationality in the current speed and guidance speed decision making.The model considering the actual situation can provide a reference for the practical application of the speed guidance system.

关 键 词：智能交通 车速引导 有限理性 信号交叉口 

分 类 号：U491.4[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]