基于学习曲线的中国未来制氢成本趋势研究  

Future cost trend of hydrogen production in China based on learning curve

作　　者：王彦哲 欧训民[1,2,3] 周胜[1,2,3] WANG Yan-Zhe;OU Xun-Min;ZHOU Sheng(Tsinghua University-Zhangjiagang Joint Institute for Hydrogen Energy and Lithium-Ion Battery Technology,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China;Institute of Nuclear and New Energy Technology,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China;Institute of Energy,Environment and Economy,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China)

机构地区：[1]清华大学张家港氢能与先进锂电技术联合研究中心,北京100084 [2]清华大学核能与新能源技术研究院,北京100084 [3]清华大学能源环境经济研究所,北京100084

出　　处：《气候变化研究进展》2022年第3期283-293,共11页Climate Change Research

基　　金：国家重点研发专项(2018YFE0202004);国家自然科学基金项目(71874096);清华大学产业发展与环境治理研究中心(CIDEG)2020年度重大课题《中国氢能发展战略研究》;中国能源模型论坛(CEMF)2035“美丽中国”目标下的我国核能和氢能发展前景。

摘　　要：氢能是中国能源系统低碳转型和实现2060年前碳中和目标的重要技术选择之一。根据原料来源可以将氢分为绿氢、蓝氢和灰氢,其制备成本和碳排放强度存在较大差异。文中以中国氢能生产现状为基础,建立基于学习曲线的平准化制氢成本(LCOH)模型,测算不同制氢技术从2020年到2060年的成本变化趋势。结果表明:现阶段灰氢成本最低,绿氢成本最高;到2030年绿氢成本将下降至20~25元/kg;2050年后,绿氢将成为成本最低的制氢方式(含碳排放成本),而且PEM(质子交换膜)电解水制氢的成本将低于AE(碱性)电解水制氢,光伏+PEM电解水制氢成本将下降至12元/kg。电解槽和电力成本下降是未来绿氢成本下降的主要驱动因素。敏感性分析表明,运营维护成本和关键技术学习率是影响绿氢成本下降速度的重要参数。Hydrogen is one of the important technology choices for the low-carbon transition of China’s energy system and the carbon neutrality goal by 2060.According to the source,hydrogen can be divided into 3 kinds:green,blue and gray hydrogen.There are big differences in the cost and carbon emission intensity among them.Based on the current status of China’s hydrogen production.A levelized cost of hydrogen(LCOH)model was established with a learning curve.The cost trend of different hydrogen production methods was measured from 2020 to 2060.Results show that the cost of gray hydrogen is the lowest,and that of green hydrogen is the highest at present;by 2030,the cost of green hydrogen will drop to CNY 20-25/kg;after 2050,green hydrogen will become the lowest cost hydrogen(considering the cost of carbon emissions),the cost of hydrogen from PEM(proton exchange membrane)electrolysis will be lower than that of AE(alkaline)electrolysis,and the cost of hydrogen from photovoltaic power+PEM electrolysis will be reduced to CNY 12/kg.The decrease in the cost of electrolyzer and renewable electricity generation will be the main driving factors for the cost reduction of green hydrogen.Sensitivity analysis shows that operation&maintenance cost and learning rate of key technologies will significantly affect the cost reduction rate of green hydrogen.

关 键 词：氢能 平准化成本 学习曲线 绿氢 电解水制氢 

分 类 号：F426.2[经济管理—产业经济] F406.7