2010-2020年上海市浦东新区恶性肿瘤死亡率及早死概率空间流行病学特征分析  

Spatial epidemiological analysis on mortality and probability of premature death caused by cancer in Pudong New Area of Shanghai, 2010-2020

作　　者：陈亦晨 孙良红 李小攀 陈涵一 曲晓滨 陈华 杨琛 肖绍坦 周弋 徐望红[1] CHEN Yi-chen;SUN Liang-hong;LI Xiao-pan;CHEN Han-yi;QU Xiao-bin;CHEN Hua;YANG Chen;XIAO Shao-tan;ZHOU Yi;XU Wang-hong(School of Public Health,Fudan University,Office of Research and Information Affairs,Shanghai Pudong New Area Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Shanghai 200032,China;Fudan University Pudong Institute of Preventive Medicine,Shanghai 200136,China)

机构地区：[1]复旦大学公共卫生学院,上海200032 [2]上海市浦东新区疾病预防控制中心科研与信息管理办公室·复旦大学浦东预防医学研究院,上海200136

出　　处：《中华肿瘤防治杂志》2022年第6期393-399,共7页Chinese Journal of Cancer Prevention and Treatment

基　　金：上海市公共卫生体系建设三年行动计划(2020-2022年)优秀青年人才培养计划(GWV-10.2-YQ43);上海市公共卫生体系建设三年行动计划(2020-2022年)优秀学科带头人项目(GWV-10.2-XD24);上海市浦东新区卫生系统学科带头人培养计划(PWRd2019-11);上海市浦东新区疾病预防控制中心卫生科技项目(PDCDC-2021-06)。

摘　　要：目的了解2010-2020年浦东新区恶性肿瘤死亡率与变化趋势的空间分布特征,为制定有针对性的区域防控措施提供依据。方法恶性肿瘤死亡数据通过浦东新区死因监测系统获得,分别计算各街镇恶性肿瘤粗死亡率、标化死亡率和早死概率及其年变化百分比(APC)。采用地理信息系统(GIS)分析空间分布特征,并进行空间自相关分析。结果2010-2020年浦东新区恶性肿瘤粗死亡率为240.03/10万,标化死亡率为125.01/10万,早死概率为6.09%。2010-2020年浦东新区恶性肿瘤粗死亡率逐年上升,APC=0.67%,Z=5.004,P<0.001;标化死亡率(APC=-2.06%,Z=-15.906,P<0.001,)与早死概率(APC=-2.18%,Z=-13.525,P<0.001)均呈下降趋势。粗死亡率、标化死亡率和早死概率APC呈空间正相关,Moran’sⅠ分别为0.124、0.195和0.221,Z值分别为1.982、2.793和3.189,P值分别为0.047、0.005和0.001;而早死概率、粗死亡率APC和标化死亡率APC空间自相关性无统计学意义,Z值分别为1.104、1.061和-0.156,P值分别为0.269、0.289和0.876。局部空间自相关分析显示,粗死亡率高-高聚集区域位于城区南码头、上钢和周家渡街道;标化死亡率高-高聚集区域为农村地区的惠南镇与宣桥镇;早死概率APC高-高聚集区为城区的花木、潍坊、塘桥与沪东街道。结论2010-2020年浦东新区恶性肿瘤死亡率与变化趋势存在地区差异。西部退休产业工人聚集区域和南部农村地区恶性肿瘤的危害更严重,可作为恶性肿瘤的重点防控区域,在此类地区推进健康教育和常见癌症筛查。Objective To describe spatial distribution of cancer mortality and probability of cancer premature death in Pudong New Area of Shanghai, and thus provide evidence for effective regional preventive and control strategies.Methods Cancer death data between 2010 and 2020 were obtained from the Vital Statistic of Pudong New Area.Crude and age-standardized mortality of cancer and probability of cancer premature death were calculated and figured by subdistricts and towns.Annual percent change(APC) for crude and age-standardized mortality of cancer and probability of cancer premature death were estimated using Joinpoint.The spatial distribution and spatial autocorrelation analysis were performed using the geographical information system(GIS).Results The crude and age-standardized mortality of cancer and probability of premature death of cancer were 240.03/100 000,125.01/100 000 and 6.09%,respectively.The crude mortality of cancer increased over the study period(APC=0.67%,Z=5.004,P<0.001),and the age-standardized mortality and the probability of premature death declined over the years,with APC being-2.06%(Z=-15.906,P<0.001)and-2.18%(Z=-13.525,P<0.001),respectively.A positive spatial autocorrelation was observed for crude and age-standardized mortality,and APC for probability of premature death(Morans’ Ⅰwere 0.124,0.195and 0.221,Zwere 1.982,2.793and 3.189,P were 0.047,0.005,0.001),but not for probability of premature death,and APC for the crude and age-standardized mortality(Zwere 1.104,1.061and-0.156,Pwere 0.269,0.289and 0.876).The local spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that the areas with high crude mortality located in urban area of western Pudong like Nanmatou,Shanggang and Zhoujiadu subdistricts,the areas with high age-standardized mortality located in rural areas of south Pudong including Huinan and Xuanqiao towns,and the areas with APC of most probability of premature death located in urban area including Huamu,Weifang,Tangqiao and Hudong subdistricts.Conclusions Cancer mortality and secular trends in Pud

关 键 词：恶性肿瘤 死亡率 早死概率 年变化百分比 空间流行病学 

分 类 号：R730.1[医药卫生—肿瘤]