中国洪涝灾害农业致灾性时空分布规律  

Analysis on spatiotemporal distribution of agricultural disaster caused by floods and waterlogging in China

作　　者：管新建[1] 刘源[1] 孟钰[1] 臧亚文 吕鸿 GUAN Xinjian;LIU Yuan;MENG Yu;ZANG Yawen;LYU Hong(School of Water Conservancy Engineering,Zhengzhou University,Zhengzhou 450001,China)

机构地区：[1]郑州大学水利科学与工程学院,河南郑州450001

出　　处：《水资源保护》2022年第4期21-25,共5页Water Resources Protection

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(51739009,51879241)。

摘　　要：利用1950—2018年历史洪涝灾情数据,选取农业受灾、成灾面积2个指标结合九点二次平滑法、时间序列分析法及空间聚类技术分析了对中国洪涝灾害农业致灾性时空分布规律。结果表明:在时间尺度上,1950—2018年中国洪涝灾害对农业的影响整体有增加趋势,但是不同区域差异明显,洪涝灾害对农业发展影响较大且未来几年这种情况可能会持续下去;在空间尺度上,华南地区、东北部分地区和临海城市农业受灾情况较其他地区更为严重。Based on the historical flood disaster data from 1950 to 2018,the spatiotemporal distribution of agricultural disasters caused by floods and waterlogging in China was studied by two selected indexes,the agricultural disaster area and disaster affected area,combined with the nine point quadratic smoothing,time series analysis and spatial clustering methods.The results show that on the time scale,the impact of floods and waterlogging on agriculture in China has an overall increasing trend from 1950 to 2018,but there are obvious differences in different regions.Flood and waterlogging disasters have a great impact on agricultural development,and this situation may continue in the next few years.On the spatial scale,the agricultural disaster in South China,some parts of Northeast China and coastal cities is more serious than that in other regions.

关 键 词：洪涝灾害 农业致灾性 九点二次平滑法 时间序列分析法 空间聚类 中国 

分 类 号：TV93[水利工程—水利水电工程] S03[农业科学]