2017-2020年南通市大气中臭氧暴露对人群死亡影响的时间序列分析  

Time series analysis of effects of ozone exposure on human mortality in Nantong,China,2017 to 2020

作　　者：何智敏[1] 侯沙沙 HE Zhi-min;HOU Sha-sha(Nantong Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Nantong 226001,China)

机构地区：[1]南通市疾病预防控制中心,南通226001

出　　处：《环境卫生学杂志》2022年第5期358-362,共5页JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL HYGIENE

基　　金：南通市卫健委科研课题(MB2021076)。

摘　　要：目的评估南通市大气中臭氧暴露对人群死亡的影响。方法收集2017—2020年南通市逐日大气污染资料、气象资料和死因资料,并进行描述性分析。采用广义线性模型(GLM)中的单污染物模型和多污染物模型分析大气中臭氧变化与南通市非意外死亡数、呼吸系统死亡数、循环系统死亡数的关系及其滞后效应。结果大气中O_(3)-8 h浓度与人群非意外总死亡数、呼吸系统和循环系统死亡数存在暴露反应关系(P<0.05),对呼吸系统死亡影响最大,在lag1达到最大效应,即O_(3)-8 h每升高1μg/m^(3),死亡人数增加1.40%(95%CI:0.97%~1.84%)。将PM_(2.5)、NO_(2)、SO_(2)纳入多污染物模型后,发现其对2017—2020年呼吸系统死亡人数的影响增加(P<0.05)。结论2017—2020年南通市大气中臭氧暴露与南通市人群非意外死亡风险增加密切相关,主要增加了本地区人群呼吸系统疾病死亡风险,对循环系统疾病的超额死亡风险尚不明显。Objective To assess the effects of exposure to ambient ozone on human mortality in Nantong,China.Methods A descriptive analysis was performed on daily data about air pollution,meteorological factors and mortality in Nantong from 2017 to 2020.Uni-pollutant and multi-pollutant generalized linear models were used to analyze the relationships between ambient ozone changes and deaths from non-accidental,respiratory,and circulatory causes as well as the lag effects.Results The eight-hour average ozone mass concentration(O_(3)-8 h)in the ambient showed significant exposure-response relationships with the death tolls from non-accidental,respiratory,and circulatory causes(P<0.05).The effect was highest for the deaths from respiratory diseases,with the maximum effect occurring at lag 1,increasing the number of deaths by 1.40%(95%CI:0.97%-1.84%)for every 1μg/m^(3) increase in O_(3)-8 h.When PM_(2.5),nitrogen dioxide(NO_(2)),and sulfur dioxide(SO_(2)) were included in the multi-pollutant model,the O_(3)-8 h showed a higher effect on the deaths from respiratory diseases from 2017 to 2020(P<0.05).Conclusion Ozone exposure was closely related to an increase in the risk of non-accidental death among people in Nantong from 2017 to 2020,which mainly increased the risk of death from respiratory diseases,without significant association with the risk of excess death from circulatory diseases.

关 键 词：臭氧 死亡 时间序列分析 

分 类 号：R12[医药卫生—环境卫生学]