我国各地区生活用水量的GM(1,1)预测研究  

Study on GM(1,1)Prediction of Domestic Water Consumption in Various Regions of China

作　　者：陈楚欣 袁媛 张鸿云 Chen Chuxin;Yuan Yuan;Zhang Hongyun(College of Traffic and Logistic,Taiyuan University of Science and Technology,Taiyuan 030000,China;Changhong Sub District Office of Tianjin Nankai District People's Government,Tianjin 300110,China)

机构地区：[1]太原科技大学交通与物流学院,山西太原030000 [2]天津市南开区人民政府长虹街道办事处,天津300110

出　　处：《科学技术创新》2022年第23期7-10,共4页Scientific and Technological Innovation

基　　金：企业合作项目(FA0202220194)。

摘　　要：我国国土辽阔,人员密集,资源在全国的分布十分不均匀。为了研究生活用水量的增长趋势,本文选取了2015-2021我国各地区生活用水量的数据,分析了其特点,用灰色预测GM(1,1)模型进行了预测,最后进行了误差分析。计算结果各地区预测精度都在95%以上,拟合度较好。本文运用模型对我国各地区生活用水进行了预测,以期对水资源的统筹工作提供参考。China has a vast territory and dense population,and the distribution of resources throughout the country is very uneven.In order to study the growth trend of domestic water consumption,this paper selects the data of domestic water consumption in various regions of China from 2015 to 2021,analyzes its characteristics,forecasts it with Grey Prediction GM(1,1)model,and finally analyzes the error.The calculation results show that the prediction accuracy of each region is more than 95%,and the fitting degree is good.This paper uses the model to predict the domestic water use in various regions of China,in order to provide reference for the overall planning of water resources.

关 键 词：生活用水量 GM(1 1)模型 预测 

分 类 号：TU991.31[建筑科学—市政工程]