高质量发展视角下青岛市海洋经济监测与预警研究  

Study on Monitoring and Advance Warning of Qingdao Marine Economy from the Perspective of High-quality Development

作　　者：刘素荣[1] 李昱莹 薛丽 LIU Surong;LI Yuying;XUE Li(School of Economics and Management, China University of Petroleum (East China), Qingdao 266580, Shandong, China;Strategic Planning Section, Marine Development Bureau of Qingdao West Coast New Area, Qingdao 266427, Shandong, China)

机构地区：[1]中国石油大学(华东)经济管理学院,山东青岛266580 [2]青岛西海岸新区海洋发展局战略规划科,山东青岛266427

出　　处：《中国石油大学学报（社会科学版）》2022年第3期58-66,共9页Journal of China University of Petroleum (Edition of Social Sciences)

基　　金：青岛市社会科学规划项目(QDSKL2001044);中国石油大学(华东)“服务青岛”研究专项课题(21CX04032B)。

摘　　要：以新发展理念为导向,从“五大维度、六个属性”构建青岛市海洋经济监测预警指标体系,综合运用景气指数法、预警信号系统以及传统灰色模型,对青岛市2011—2018年海洋经济统计数据进行研究。结果显示,2011—2018年青岛市海洋经济质量呈现结构化短板,科技创新与生态效益呈现波动化发展,但整体水平处于较为稳定的绿灯区,总体呈持续增长趋势;预测在2019—2022年间青岛市海洋经济发展将持续稳定,但在2021—2022年间存在偏热的可能。Guided by the new development concept,the monitoring and advance warning index system of Qingdao marine economy has been constructed in light of"five dimensions and six attributes".The statistics gathered from 2011 to 2018 concerning Qingdao marine economy have been studied by employing the prosperity index method,advance warning signal system and the traditional Grey Model.The results suggest that the quality of marine economy in Qingdao has manifested structural weaknesses from 2011 to 2018,and that technological innovation and ecological benefits have witnessed a fluctuating trend.But the overall level is in a relatively stable green zone,displaying a trend of sustained growth.It is predicted that the stable development of Qingdao marine economy will persist from 2019 to 2022 with a probability of slightly overheated economy in between 2021 to 2022.

关 键 词：海洋经济监测 高质量发展 景气指数分析 预警信号系统 GM(1 1)模型 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济] F224