中国电力消费(1997-2017年)驱动因素分析  

An Analysis of the Driving Factors of Chinese Electricity Consumption from 1997 to 2017

作　　者：王海林[1] 翁玉艳[1,2] 张成龙 WANG Hailin;WENG Yuyan;ZHANG Chenglong(Institute of Energy,Environment and Economy,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China;State Grid Energy Research Institute Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 102209,China)

机构地区：[1]清华大学能源环境经济研究所,北京100084 [2]国网能源研究院有限公司,北京102209

出　　处：《中国电力》2022年第7期74-80,共7页Electric Power

基　　金：国家重点研发计划资助项目(2017YFA0605302,2017YFA0605304);国家电网有限公司科技项目(52130N18001G)。

摘　　要：采用对数平均迪式指数(logarithmic mean divisia index,LMDI)因素分解法,分析经济因素、技术因素、结构因素、人口因素和居民活动因素对中国1997―2017年电力消费增长的驱动作用。研究结果表明,经济因素在新增电力消费中的贡献最大,技术因素和结构因素减缓了电力消费的快速增长,人口因素和居民活动因素对电力消费增长的贡献逐渐增加。建议要继续保持经济高质量增长,制定更为科学合理的电力发展目标和针对性政策措施,合理引导家庭电力消费模式转变,以电力高质量发展满足居民高品质生活需求。The logarithmic mean divisia index(LMDI)factor decomposition method is used to analyze the driving effects of economic factor,technical factor,structural factor,population factor and resident activity factor on the China's electricity consumption growth between 1997 and 2017.The results show that economic factor contribute most to the increase in electricity consumption;the technical factor and structural factor slow down the rapid growth of electricity consumption;and the contribution of population and resident activity factors to the growth of electricity consumption gradually increases.It is suggested that we should continue to maintain high-quality economic growth and formulate more scientific and reasonable electricity development goals and targeted policies and measures.The transformation of household electricity consumption patterns should be guided rationally to meet the residents'high-quality living needs with high-quality electricity development.

关 键 词：LMDI分解 电力消费 电耗强度 累计贡献 

分 类 号：F426.61[经济管理—产业经济]