“一带一路”沿线国家碳排放:外商直接投资与发展要素的共同影响分析  

Carbon Emissions by‘the Belt and Road’Countries:Impacts of Foreign Direct Investment and Development Factors

作　　者：昌敦虎[1] 缪琪 原佳倩 陶子怡 董战峰 白雨鑫 CHANG Dunhu;MIAO Qi;YUAN Jiaqian;TAO Ziyi;DONG Zhanfeng;BAI Yuxin(School of Environment&Natural Resources,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China;Chinese Academy for Environmental Planning,Beijing 100012,China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学环境学院,北京100872 [2]生态环境部环境规划院,北京100012

出　　处：《环境科学研究》2022年第7期1556-1563,共8页Research of Environmental Sciences

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(No.20&ZD092);国家重点研发计划项目(No.2018YFC0213700)。

摘　　要：“一带一路”倡议下,推动绿色低碳发展,共建碳达峰、碳中和目标下国际合作共赢的生态圈,已经成为“一带一路”沿线国家的共识.本文基于“一带一路”沿线国家1997—2018年的面板数据,通过逐步回归、异质性分析和门槛回归方法探究外商直接投资(FDI)的碳排放效应.结果显示:(1)“一带一路”沿线国家FDI显著增加碳排放,体现出“污染天堂”效应.(2)我国提出的“一带一路”倡议注重绿色低碳发展,削弱了“一带一路”沿线国家FDI对碳排放的“污染天堂”效应,体现出我国在环境治理特别是应对气候变化方面发挥的引领示范作用.(3)经济发展可削弱FDI对碳排放的“污染天堂”效应,然而经济快速发展特别是工业发展可显著增加碳排放.(4)政策、创新和发展三类机制均导致FDI的碳排放效应发生显著变化,其中发展机制影响最大,创新机制的碳减排效果相对稳定.(5)强化环境规制促进了FDI的“污染光环”效应,“一带一路”倡议则推动“一带一路”沿线各国加强了环境规制.研究显示,为促进“污染光环”效应形成,应深化绿色“一带一路”,利用来自中国投资的低碳化特征,增加与中国的投资往来并提高负有环境责任FDI的比例.“一带一路”沿线各国也应加强绿色低碳科技创新,在此基础上协同政策、创新和发展三类机制,引导FDI投向绿色低碳领域.此外,还应综合运用环境准入机制和环境经济手段,实现高质量发展.With‘the Belt and Road’Initiative,the consensus among the countries has been achieved to promote low-carbon development.Based on the panel data of‘the Belt and Road’Countries during 1997-2018,this paper explores the impacts of Foreign Direct Investment(FDI)on carbon emissions by stepwise regression,heterogeneity analysis and threshold regression.The results show that:(1)FDI to‘the Belt and Road’Countries has significantly increased carbon emissions,indicating the‘pollution haven’effect.(2)‘The Belt and Road’Initiative proposed by China in 2013 focuses on green development,which helps to weaken the‘pollution haven’effect of FDI on carbon emissions in‘the Belt and Road’Countries.It reflects China's leading role in global environmental governance,especially in climate change response.(3)Economic development can weaken the‘pollution haven’effect of FDI on carbon emissions,but rapid economic development,especially industrial growth,significantly increases carbon emissions.(4)Policy,innovation and development mechanisms all lead to significant changes in the carbon emission effect of FDI,among which the development mechanism has the greatest influence,while the innovation mechanism is the most effective.(5)Strengthening environmental regulations promotes the‘pollution halo’effect of FDI.‘The Belt and Road’Initiative plays an important role in strengthening environmental regulation in‘the Belt and Road’Countries.Therefore, in order to promote the ‘pollution halo’ effect of FDI, the green ‘Belt and Road’ initiative should be reinforced and the low-carbon investments from China or other environmentally responsible FDI should be introduced. It is also necessary to strengthen the innovation in low-carbon science and technologies. With the technological improvement, policies, innovation and development mechanisms can be coordinated to guide FDIs into green and low-carbon fields. In addition, a combination of environmental access mechanisms and environmental economic instrum

关 键 词：“一带一路”倡议 外商直接投资 碳排放 “污染天堂”效应 “污染光环”效应 

分 类 号：X196[环境科学与工程—环境科学]