基于博弈论组合赋权的平原公路风吹雪雪阻危险度评价研究  

Study on risk assessment of snow drift resistance of plain highway based on combination weighting of game theory

作　　者：马磊 冉武平[1] 李钰 刘健 胡智轩 王守玲 MA Lei;RAN Wuping;LI Yu;LIU Jian;HU Zhixuan;WANG Shouling(Institute of Civil Engineering,Xinjiang University,Urumqi 830047,China;Key Laboratory of Highway Engineering Technology in Arid&Desert Region,Ministry of Transport,Xinjiang Academy of Transportation Sciences,Urumqi 830000,China;Tacheng Regional Highway Administration,Tacheng 834300,China)

机构地区：[1]新疆大学建筑工程学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830047 [2]新疆交通科学研究院干旱荒漠区公路工程技术交通运输行业重点实验室,新疆乌鲁木齐830000 [3]塔城地区公路管理局,新疆塔城834300

出　　处：《自然灾害学报》2022年第3期85-92,共8页Journal of Natural Disasters

基　　金：交通运输部应用基础研究(2014319797050)。

摘　　要：在风吹雪雪阻危险度评价研究工作中,主观定性研究较多,客观定量研究较少,而定量研究一般多从气象灾害角度以移雪量、降雪量等为主要要素进行风吹雪评价研究,对于承灾体自身和环境抵御灾害的能力考虑较少,在公路灾害的点评价方面存在不足。鉴于此,本文提出了从公路设计指标、气象条件、环境条件3个层面在G1法主观定性和熵权法客观定量分析的基础上,运用博弈论组合赋权进行风吹雪雪阻危险度评价的方法。该方法在新疆塔城地区玛依塔斯风区G3015线34处灾害路段上进行了实例运用及验证,分析表明:该方法评价结果准确率94%,在平原区公路风吹雪雪阻评价中切实可行,可指导该线风吹雪防治资源配给,并为类似项目提供参考和借鉴。In the study of risk assessment of snow drift resistance,there are more qualitative studies and less quan-titative studies,however,quantitative studies generally focus on the assessment of snowdrift from the perspective of meteorological disasters,and take the amount of snowdrift and snowfall as the main factors,there are some defi-ciencies in the point evaluation of highway disasters.In view of this,this paper puts forward from three levels of highway design elements,meteorological elements,environmental elements on the basis of G1 statutory and entro-py weight quantitative analysis,risk assessment method of snow drift resistance based on combination of game theo-ry.The method has been applied and verified in 34 disaster sections of G3015 road in Mayitasi Wind District of Tacheng,Xinjiang.The analysis shows that the accuracy of the method is 94%,and it is feasible to evaluate the snowdrift resistance of highway in plain area,which can guide the resource allocation of snowdrift control in this line and provide reference for similar projects.

关 键 词：公路风吹雪 风吹雪雪阻 博弈论 组合赋权 危险度评价 

分 类 号：S427[农业科学—植物保护] X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]