农地确权如何影响农户举家迁移——对政策推广不同阶段影响差异的考察  

How does Land Titling Affect Rural Family Migration? The Different Impacts of the Policy between Anticipation to Implementation

作　　者：杨宗耀 陈品 纪月清[1,3] YANG Zongyao;CHEN Pin;JI Yueqing(College of Economics and Management,Nanjing Agricultural University,Nanjing 210095,China;School of Economics and Management,Changzhou Institute of Technology,Changzhou 213032,China;China Center for Food Security Research,Nanjing Agricultural University,Nanjing 210095,China)

机构地区：[1]南京农业大学经济管理学院,江苏南京210095 [2]常州工学院经济与管理学院,江苏常州213032 [3]南京农业大学中国粮食安全研究中心,江苏南京210095

出　　处：《中南财经政法大学学报》2022年第4期96-107,共12页Journal of Zhongnan University of Economics and Law

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“细碎化产权VS整片化土地利用:评承包地确权颁证对农户农地利用集体布局、投资与流转的影响”(71773050);国家自然科学基金面上项目“独木不成林:现代农业中小农经营规模变动的区域性外部经济研究”(72073066);江苏省社会科学基金项目“新型城镇化背景下江苏农民市民化与土地流转研究”(17GLC011)。

摘　　要：增强农村土地产权稳定性一直被认为是促进农村劳动力迁移就业的关键,在农地确权全面推广时期农户举家迁移增速却开始放缓。理论上对此的解释可能为:确权作为土地产权界定与确认的过程,其推广实施本身蕴含“不稳定因素”并阶段性降低农户的稳定性预期,当即将实施确权的预期会显著降低地权稳定性,且政策落地带来的稳定性提升非常有限时,就可能造成确权全面推广时期总体地权稳定性的阶段性下降和迁移的放缓。本文利用江苏省771家农户两期面板数据的实证研究表明:即将实施确权的预期会显著抑制农村家庭特别是有老年人的家庭迁移;确权政策落地对农户举家迁移的影响总体并不显著,仅对经历过土地调整的有老年人家庭的迁移有促进作用。上述结果意味着,一方面,需要关注和治理产权再界定时间节点出现的短暂却显著的地权稳定预期下降,特别是即将到来的第二轮土地承包到期与延包;另一方面,需要在地权稳定之外找原因、出政策,有效促进农户举家迁移和城镇化的高质量发展。Land tenure security is well known as a driving force for rural labor migration and off-farm employment.However,during execution of land titling,the rate of growth in rural family migration began to decline.Theoretically,the process of land titling,a redefinition of land ownership rights,is thought to raise land ownership risks including land adjustment and ownership disputes,and lower farmers'expectations for tenure security.Both a sharp decline in tenure security since the policy was coming and a weak increase after the policy was implemented would lead to tenure insecurity and slow rural family migration during the execution of the policy.This paper used panel data of 771 farmers in Jiangsu Province to test the above hypothesis.The findings are as follows:On the one hand,rural families with the elderly would put off migration when they anticipated the policy being coming.On the other hand,those who experienced land adjustment would be more likely to migrate after the implementation.The policy implications are as follows:On the one hand,it is necessary to eliminate the temporary but significant decline in tenure security during the redefinition and entitlement of land rights,particularly for the expiration date of the second round of land contracts.On the other hand,it is also essential to find other reasons and formulate policies in order to promote the high-quality development of rural migration and urbanization.

关 键 词：农地确权 地权稳定性 劳动力迁移 举家迁移 城镇化 

分 类 号：F321.1[经济管理—产业经济]