基于行为经济学前景理论的出行决策  

Travel Decision Based on Prospect Theory of Behavioral Economics

作　　者：汤静妍 胡明伟[1,2,3,4] 何国庆 TANG Jing-yan;HU Ming-wei;HE Guo-qing(College of Civil and Transportation Engineering, Shenzhen University, Shenzhen 518060, China;Key Laboratory of Coastal Urban Resilient Infrastructures (Shenzhen University), Ministry of Education, Shenzhen 518060, China;Underground Polis Academy of Shenzhen University, Shenzhen 518060,China;Shenzhen Key Laboratory of Green, Efficient and Intelligent Construction of Underground Metro Station, Shenzhen 518060, China)

机构地区：[1]深圳大学土木与交通工程学院,深圳518060 [2]深圳大学滨海城市韧性基础设施教育部重点实验室,深圳518060 [3]深圳大学未来地下城市研究院,深圳518060 [4]深圳市地铁地下车站绿色高效智能建造重点实验室,深圳518060

出　　处：《科学技术与工程》2022年第19期8523-8529,共7页Science Technology and Engineering

基　　金：中国工程科技发展战略广东研究院咨询研究项目(2020-GD-04-1-1,2019-GD-03)。

摘　　要：考虑出行环境不确定性和出行者有限理性的特点,应用行为经济学中的前景理论分析出行决策行为,引入拥堵收费和票价折扣作为变量,建立改进的出行决策模型。将出行方式划分为公共交通和私人交通两类,引入政府参与管理因素,探讨不同交通需求管理政策干预下出行者的决策行为,通过算例分析了不同政策标准对出行决策行为的影响程度。结果表明:同时引进拥堵收费和票价折扣政策,拥堵收费超过22元时,出行者的决策结果发生改变。合理设置拥堵收费和票价折扣标准可以促进更多出行者选择公共交通出行。Considering the uncertainty of travel environment and the characteristics of bounded rationality of travelers,the prospect theory of behavioral economics was applied to analyze travel decision-making behavior,introduce congestion pricing and fare discounts as variables,and a model of choice of travel modes based on the improvement of congestion charging and fare discount policy was established.The travel modes were divided into public transportation and private transportation,and the factors of government participation and management were introduced to discuss the decision-making behaviors of travelers under the intervention of different traffic demand management policies.The influence of different policy standards on the choice of travel modes was analyzed through an example.The results show that congestion pricing and fare discount policies are introduced at the same time.When the congestion pricing exceeds 22 yuan,the decision results of travelers will change.Reasonable setting of congestion pricing and fare discount standards can promote more travelers to choose public transportation.

关 键 词：出行决策 前景理论 拥堵收费 票价折扣 前景值 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]