中国大陆强震孕育过程关联的地壳形变及孕震晚期逼近发震过程识别问题  

Crustal Deformation Associated with Seismogenic Process of Chinese Mainland Strong Earthquakes and Identification of Approximation to Seismogenic Process in the Late Seismogenic Stage

作　　者：江在森[1,2] 邵志刚 刘晓霞[1] 邹镇宇[1] 武艳强[3] JIANG Zaisen;SHAO Zhigang;LIU Xiaoxia;ZOU Zhenyu;WU Yanqiang(Institute of Earthquake Forecasting,China Earthquake Administration,Beijing 100036,China;China Earthquake Networks Center,Beijing 100045,China;The First Crust Monitoring and Application Center,China Earthquake Administration,Tianjin 300180,China)

机构地区：[1]中国地震局地震预测研究所,北京100036 [2]中国地震台网中心,北京100045 [3]中国地震局第一监测中心,天津300180

出　　处：《武汉大学学报（信息科学版）》2022年第6期807-819,共13页Geomatics and Information Science of Wuhan University

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41904092,41974011);中国地震局地震预测研究所基本科研业务费专项(2020IEF0506,CEAIEF2022010101);国家重点研发计划(2018YFE0109700)。

摘　　要：基于地壳形变观测研究,概略回顾了中国大陆地壳形变时空动态特征及其与强震活动的关系、与强震孕育过程关联的多尺度地壳形变动态特征,以及震前各类形变异常信息提取方面的进展和认识。目前能给出明确时间尺度(10年和更短)强震预测的地壳形变有效依据仍不足,需有效识别孕震晚期强震源逼近发震的过程,推进中国大陆强震预测在较短时间尺度的进展。结合几次强震前全球导航卫星系统(global navigation satellite system,GNSS)观测到的较显著的地壳形变转入非弹性变形状态的分析,讨论了在观测技术已取得显著进步条件下,逐步实现对孕震晚期强震源逼近发震过程有效识别的可能性及相关问题。This paper briefly reviews the temporal and spatial characteristics of crustal deformation and its relationship with strong earthquakes in Chinese mainland based on geodetic observations.It also introduces the progress and understanding of extracting multi-scale crustal deformation characteristics associated with seismogenic process and various deformation anomalies before earthquakes in Chinese mainland.However,it is still insufficient that the effective basis for the crustal deformation can give the prediction of strong earthquakes in a clear time scale of 10 years and shorter.In order to promote the progress of continental strong earthquake prediction in a short time scale,it is necessary to effectively identify the process of strong source approaching earthquake in late seismogenic stage.Based on the analysis that the crustal deformation information observed by global navigation satellite system(GNSS)before several strong earthquakes,the crustal deformation state in the focal region of the late pregnancy earthquake could be transferred to the inelastic deformation state.Considering the factors such as the progress of observation technology,the possibility and related problems of the effective identification of the late pregnancy earthquake approaching to the strong source are discussed.

关 键 词：地壳形变 中国大陆强震 孕震晚期 逼近发震过程 

分 类 号：P315[天文地球—地震学]