气候变化及变率和人类活动对荒漠化的影响  

The Impacts of Climate Change and Variability and Human Activities on Desertification

作　　者：巩倩 吴建国[2] 王立[1] Gong Qian;Wu Jianguo;Wang Li(College of Forestry,Gansu Agricultural University,Lanzhou 730070,China;Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences,Beijing 100021,China)

机构地区：[1]甘肃农业大学林学院,兰州730070 [2]中国环境科学研究院,北京100021

出　　处：《科技通报》2022年第5期98-106,共9页Bulletin of Science and Technology

基　　金：国家科技基础资源调查专项-云南哀牢山;宁夏贺兰山资源环境和生物多样性调查(2019FY101606)。

摘　　要：准确识别气候变化及变率和人类活动对荒漠化的影响,对科学防治荒漠化有重要意义。以125篇公开发表的涉及气候变化及变率和人类活动对我国荒漠化影响的文献为样本,在SPSS软件中以卡方统计检验和Cramer’s V系数法,分析了荒漠化成因结论与分析方法、地理空间范围和时段长度的相关性。我国荒漠化大多由气候变化及变率和人类活动,以及人类活动主导引起,主要集中在西北地区。在125篇文献中,荒漠化成因是由气候变化及变率所主导的文献占24.0%、由人类活动主导的文献占37.6%、由气候变化及变率和人类活动共同导致的文献占38.4%。分析气候变化及变率和人类活动对我国荒漠化影响中,以描述性分析法、小尺度和41~50 a和1~10 a时段长度为主;荒漠化成因结论与分析方法、地理空间范围和时段长度间存在显著的中度关联性(P<0.05)。评估气候变化及变率和人类活动对荒漠化影响,需要考虑分析方法、地理空间范围和研究的时段长度对荒漠化成因结论的影响。未来需要发展研究方法、多时空尺度开展气候变化及变率和人类活动对我国荒漠化影响的研究。It is important to analyze the effects of climate change and variability or human activities on desertification. In order to identify whether the analysis method, time length, and geographical range would influence the conclusion of desertification causes, a two-dimensional contingency table of the desertification causes and research methods of the impact assessment of climate change, and human activities on desertification, as well as the geographical spatial scope and the length of the time period was constructed based on 125 literatures associated with the impact of climate change and human activities on desertification in China published from 1987 to 2020. Chi square test and Cramer’s method in SPSS software S V contingency table coefficient method were used to identify the correlation between the assessment conclusion of the contribution of climate change, and human activities to desertification and the analysis methods, geographical spatial range and time period length. The results showed that desertification in China were mostly caused by climate change and variability and human activities, or mainly caused by human activities, The desertification mainly occurred in the northwestern China. Among the 125 literatures, the desertification were caused by climate change and variability accounted for 24.0%, those caused by human activities accounted for 37.6%, and those caused by the combined effects of climate change, variability and human activities accounted for 38.4%. In analyzing the effects of climate change and variability and human activities on desertification, descriptive analysis, small spatial scale, and the period length of 41-50 years or 1-10 years were the main methods. There was a significant moderate correlation between the desertification cause conclusions and analysis methods, geographic range and period length(P<0.05). The results showed that it was necessary to consider the impact of analysis methods, geographic range, and the length of the research period when we assessed the causes of de

关 键 词：荒漠化 人类活动 气候变化 气候变率 列联表 卡方检验 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]