“双循环”格局下中国水产品进口贸易波动研究  

Study on the fluctuation of China’s aquatic products import trade under the background of the dual circulation

作　　者：孙琛[1] 陈颖 SUN Chen;CHEN Ying(College ofeconomics and management Shanghai Ocean University,Sanghai 201306,China)

机构地区：[1]上海海洋大学经济管理学院,上海201306

出　　处：《中国渔业经济》2022年第3期93-101,共9页Chinese Fisheries Economics

基　　金：国家现代农业产业技术体系-虾蟹体系专项资金(CARS-48)资助。

摘　　要：随着我国渔业产业的市场化程度和国际化程度加深,我国水产品贸易在转变发展策略的过程中面临着许多严峻的挑战。因此,本文选取2006-2019年我国水产品进口贸易数据,通过构建CMS模型和使用有序样品聚类方法,分析我国水产品进口贸易波动影响因素以明确我国水产品贸易竞争优势和应对贸易风险、贸易摩擦,从而助力形成国内国际双循环的新发展格局。研究结果表明:我国进口结构优势和较强的进口引力是促进水产品进口贸易增长的关键因素,但是进口市场结构和商品结构的拉动作用在减弱,进口结构逐渐呈现不合理性,基于此提出相关建议。With the deepening of marketization and internationalization of China’s fishery industry, China’s aquatic products trade is facing many challenges in the process of changing development strategies. Therefore, this paper selects the data of China’s aquatic products import trade from 2006 to 2019, analyzes the influencing factors of China’s aquatic products import trade fluctuation by constructing CMS model and using ordered sample clustering method, so as to clarify the competitive advantage of China’s aquatic products trade and deal with trade risks and trade frictions,thus helping to form a new development pattern of domestic and international dual circulation. The results show that China’s import structure advantage and strong import attraction are the key factors to promote the growth of aquatic products import trade, but the pulling effect of import market structure and commodity structure is weakening, and the import structure is gradually unreasonable.Based on above analysis, some suggestions are put forward.

关 键 词：水产品 进口波动 CMS模型 有序样品聚类 

分 类 号：F326.406[经济管理—产业经济]