内蒙古包头市某金矿接尘矿工矽肺发病人数预测研究  

Studying on prediction of the number of silicosis in a gold mine in Baotou,Inner Mongolia

作　　者：云翔[1] 樊树利 刘瑞祥[1] 赵慧[1] 刘丽娟 郑宇飞[1] YUN Xiang;FAN Shu-li;LIU Rui-xiang;ZHAO Hui;LIU Li-juan;ZHENG Yu-fei(Sinopharm North Hospital Industrial Health Branch,Baotou,Inner Mongolia 014030,China)

机构地区：[1]国药北方医院工业卫生科,内蒙古包头014030

出　　处：《工业卫生与职业病》2022年第4期294-296,301,共4页Industrial Health and Occupational Diseases

摘　　要：目的采用寿命表法预测包头市某金矿未来30 a矽肺发病人数,确定发病高危人群。方法收集内蒙古包头市某金矿1992-2015年接尘矿工职业卫生档案资料,以符合纳入标准的3061名接尘矿工作为研究对象,按照接尘矿工岗位划分为凿岩工、运输工、爆破工及辅助工。采用寿命表方法计算不同工种累计发病率及年平均发病率,根据接尘矿工矽肺平均发病率和中国城市男性居民年龄别预期寿命,预测该金矿健康接尘矿工未来30年矽肺发病人数。结果不同工种矽肺发病率由高到低依次为凿岩工占25.11%,运输工占6.02%、爆破工占3.24%、辅助工占0.10%,不同工种发病率差异有统计学意义(χ^(2)=425.44,P<0.01);不同工种矽肺累计发病率由高到低依次为凿岩工38.17%、运输工22.74%、爆破工15.62%、辅助工2.06%。预测结果显示,未来期望寿命内约有418人罹患矽肺,不同工种发病人数由高到低分别为运输工约140人、爆破工113人、凿岩工93人、辅助工72人;其中凿岩工发病率最高(56.7%),辅助工发病率最低(3.56%);发病人数主要集中在35~44岁年龄段人群,约262人发病,占全部发病人数62.68%;未来30 a内约有365人发病,占全部发病人数87.32%。结论凿岩工累计发病率高于运输工、爆破工及辅助工;凿岩工及运输工为矽肺高发人群,属于重点监测保护对象。Objective To predict the patient number of silicosis in 30 years in a gold mine of Baotou,and to identify the population at high risk.Methods A total of 3061 workers in this gold mine who entered the study cohort from 1992 to 2015 were selected as objects,and they were divided into four work types of drilling,transporting,blasting and helping at the same time.Life table method was adopted to analyze the accumulative incidence rate and the average annual incidence of work types,besides,the average incidence of silicosis and the age-specific expected lifespan of man in the China were used for silicosis patient number predicting in 30 years.Results The incidence rates of the drilling,transporting,blasting and helping workers were 25.11%,6.02%,3.24%,0.10%respectively,with statistically significant difference(χ~2=425.44,P<0.01).The cumulative incidence rates were 38.17%,22.74%,15.62%and 2.06%for drilling,transporting,blasting and helping.There will be about 418 silicosis after 30 years.The number of the transporting,blasting,drilling and helping will be 140,113,93 and 72 respectively;silicosis incidence rate in drilling group was the highest(56.7%);silicosis incidence rate in helping group was the lowest(3.56%).The majority of silicosis patients would occur in the cohort numbers now aged 35-44 years and there would be 262 silicosis in the future,accounting for 62.68%of total silicosis patients.There will be 365 silicosis patients within the next 30 years incidents predicted,accounting for 87.32%of the total number of patients.Conclusions The cumulative incidence rate of silicosis in drilling worker will be higher than that workers with other type of works in a gold mine.The workers engaged in drilling and transporting are at high risk of silicosis in the gold mine.

关 键 词：矽肺 累计发病率 发病预测 寿命表 

分 类 号：R135.2[医药卫生—劳动卫生]