指数平滑法在区域卫生人力资源配置预测中的应用  

Application of exponential smoothing method in prediction of regional health human resource allocation

作　　者：林建潮[1] 孙欢欢 阮伟良 Lin Jianchao;Sun Huanhuan;Ruan Weiliang(Shaoxing Second Hospital,Shaoxing 312000,China;Shaoxing Central hospital,Shaoxing 312030,China)

机构地区：[1]绍兴第二医院,浙江绍兴312000 [2]绍兴市中心医院,浙江绍兴312030

出　　处：《中国医院统计》2022年第3期220-222,共3页Chinese Journal of Hospital Statistics

基　　金：绍兴市柯桥区科技计划项目(2021KZ21)。

摘　　要：目的探讨指数平滑法在区域卫生人力资源配置预测中的应用。方法运用SPSS 23.0对某市2011—2020年每千常住人口医师数进行指数平滑模型的建模拟合,用所得模型对该市2021—2023年的每千常住人口医师数进行预测和评价。结果采用非季节性Holt′s线性趋势构建模型的R 2值最大,R^(2)为0.988,均方根误差(RMSE)为0.053,平均绝对百分误差(MAPE)为1.495,为最优拟合模型。结论非季节性Holt′s线性趋势模型能够较好地拟合区域卫生人力资源配置,可用于区域卫生人力资源配置的预测。Objective To discuss the application of exponential smoothing method in forecasting the allocation of regional health human resources.Methods Based on the number of physicians per thousand permanent residents in a city from 2011 to 2020,SPSS 23.0 was used to establish the exponential smoothing model,Which was used to predict and evaluate the number of physicians per thousand permanent residents of the city from 2021 to 2023.Results The R 2 value of the model constructed by the non-seasonal Holt′s linear trend was the largest,and the R 2 value was 0.988,RMSE was 0.053,and MAPE was 1.495,which was the best fitting model.Conclusion The non-seasonal Holt′s linear trend model can better fit the regional health human resource allocation and can be used to predict the regional health human resource allocation.

关 键 词：指数平滑法 卫生人力资源 预测 

分 类 号：R195.1[医药卫生—卫生统计学]