基于GM(1,1)模型对广西人均地区生产总值的预测  

Prediction of Per Capita Regional GDP in Guangxi Based on GM(1,1)Model

作　　者：莫定源 MO Ding-yuan(School of Mathematics and Statistics,Baise University,Baise 533000,China)

机构地区：[1]百色学院数学与统计学院,百色533000

出　　处：《价值工程》2022年第23期17-19,共3页Value Engineering

摘　　要：本文将广西人均地区生产总值作为研究对象,基于GM(1,1)模型对广西2013-2020年数据进行分析与预测。研究表明,该模型能通过相对残差检验和后验差检验,具有较高的可信度。利用建立的模型对2021-2025年广西人均地区生产总值进行预测,预测结果表明2021-2025年广西人均地区生产总值呈现不断上升趋势,研究结果可为了解广西未来经济水平的发展状况提供参考。最后,本文针对广西经济发展的现状提出相应的建议与对策。This paper takes the per capita GDP of Guangxi as the research object,and analyzes and forecasts the data of Guangxi from 2013 to 2020 based on GM(1,1)model.The research shows that the model can pass the relative residual test and a posteriori test,and it has high reliability.The model is used to predict Guangxi's per capita regional GDP from 2021 to 2025,and the forecast results show that Guangxi's per capita regional GDP will continue to rise from 2021 to 2025,and the research results can provide a reference for understanding the future economic development of Guangxi.Finally,this paper puts forward corresponding suggestions and Countermeasures for the current situation of Guangxi's economic development.

关 键 词：人均地区生产总值 GM(1 1)模型 广西 

分 类 号：F293.1[经济管理—国民经济]