基于最优尺度回归的卷烟消费者品牌偏好预测模型构建  

Construction of Cigarette Consumer Brand Preference Prediction Model Based on Optimal Scale Regression

作　　者：杨茜芮 张一博 王丹 许飞 YANG Xirui;ZHANG Yibo;WANG Dan;XU Fei(Shaanxi Province Company of China National Tobacco Corporation Xi’an,Shaanxi 710000;Yan’an Company of Shaanxi Province Tobacco Company Xi’an,Shaanxi 716000)

机构地区：[1]中国烟草总公司陕西省公司,陕西西安710000 [2]陕西省烟草公司延安市公司,陕西西安716000

出　　处：《中国商论》2022年第15期80-85,共6页China Journal of Commerce

基　　金：中国烟草总公司陕西省公司科技项目:“烟草商业企业品类配额及梯次布局管理研究”(KJ-2020-10)。

摘　　要：消费者在采取购买行动之前,心中就已有了既定的品位及偏好,实施消费者品牌偏好预测是卷烟商业企业实现精准品牌营销的重要保障。以零售商市场为重,以消费者市场为轻的营销观念和行为习惯将严重阻碍卷烟营销高质量发展的步伐。本文基于34972份有效卷烟消费者调查问卷,采用多重对应分析法探索性地发现卷烟消费者的品牌偏好与年龄、教育程度、月收入、烟月消费、期望价格、偏好外形等影响因素特征具有显著的对应关系,进而运用最优尺度回归分析法将对应关系进行量化,构建卷烟消费者品牌偏好预测模型,为烟草商业企业开展品牌精准营销、品牌培育与发展工作提供有效的决策依据。Consumers have established taste and preference before they make a purchase.It is an important guarantee for cigarette commercial enterprises realizing precise brand marketing to implement consumer brand preference prediction.The marketing concept and behavior habit of taking the retailer market as the priority and the consumer market as the secondary will seriously hinder the pace of high-quality development of cigarette marketing.Based on 34972 valid cigarette consumer survey questionnaires,adopting multiple corresponding analysis,this paper exploringly founds that cigarette consumer brand preference has significant relationship between the influence factors such as age,education level,monthly income,monthly cigarette consumption,the expected price and preference appearance.Further,this paper uses the optimal scale regression analysis to quantify the corresponding relationship,constructs the prediction model of cigarette consumer brand preference,which provides effective decision-making basis for cigarette commercial enterprises to carry out precise brand marketing,brand cultivation and development.

关 键 词：品牌偏好 多重对应分析 最优尺度回归 

分 类 号：F063.2[经济管理—政治经济学]