1987—2016年江苏省启东市前列腺癌生存率分析  

Survival Trend of Prostate Cancer in Qidong County,Jiangsu Province from 1987 to 2016

作　　者：严永锋 王军 徐源佑 陈永胜 张永辉 丁璐璐 陈建国 朱健 YAN Yong-feng;WANG Jun;XU Yuan-you;CHEN Yong-sheng;ZHANG Yong-hui;DING Lu-lu;CHEN Jian-guo;ZHU Jian(Qidong People’s Hospital,Qidong Liver Cancer Institute,the Affiliated Qidong Hospital of Nantong University,Qidong 226200,China)

机构地区：[1]启东市人民医院,启东肝癌防治研究所,南通大学附属启东医院,江苏启东226200

出　　处：《中国肿瘤》2022年第6期457-462,共6页China Cancer

基　　金：南通市市级科技计划项目(JCZ20154);南通市卫生健康委员会科研项目(QB2019026)。

摘　　要：[目的]对江苏省启东市近30年全人群前列腺癌发病病例进行生存率分析,为预后评价及防治提供依据。[方法]基于启东市癌症登记病例资料,采用SURV3.01软件中Hakulinen方法一计算观察生存率(OS)和相对生存率(RS),应用Hakulinen似然比检验法进行统计学检验。用Joinpoint 4.7.0.0软件进行回归分析,计算前列腺癌生存率年度变化百分比(APC)。[结果]启东市1987—2016年前列腺癌1、5、10年OS分别为72.57%、38.08%及18.57%;1、5、10年RS分别为78.45%、56.99%及44.40%,经年龄调整后1、5、10年RS分别为75.19%、53.30%及43.24%。5年RS从1987—1991年的26.24%上升至2012—2016年的59.97%,10年RS从1987—1991年的27.13%上升至2012—2016年的51.50%,RS的总体上升趋势有统计学意义(χ2=63.41,P<0.001)。55~64岁、65~74岁和75岁及以上各年龄组5年OS分别为52.58%、46.64%和30.56%,5年RS分别为56.62%、56.92%和58.06%,各年龄组之间RS差异无统计学意义(χ^(2)=8.67,P=0.926)。启东市前列腺癌5年OS的1987—2016年总体APC为4.97%(t=2.261,P=0.032),上升趋势有统计学意义;5年RS的总体APC为4.32%(t=1.850,P=0.075),上升趋势无统计学意义。55~64岁、65~74岁和75岁及以上年龄组5年RS的APC分别为20.13%(t=1.474,P=0.215)、2.62%(t=2.544,P=0.064)和15.31%(t=1.207,P=0.294),上升趋势均无统计学意义。[结论]近30年来启东地区前列腺癌生存率得到一定的提升,但仍有较大的上升空间,应当继续重视前列腺癌的早诊早治。[Purpose]To analyze the survival rate of prostate cancer cases in the whole population of Qidong County,Jiangsu Province from 1987 to 2016.[Methods]Based on the cancer registration case data in Qidong County,the observed survival rate(OS)and relative survival rate(RS)were calculated using the Hakulinen method in SURV3.01 software,and statistical test was performed using Hakulinen’s likelihood ratio test.Joinpoint regression analysis was performed with Joinpoint 4.7.0.0 software to calculate the annual percentage change(APC)of prostate cancer survival.[Results]The 1-,5-,and 10-year OS of prostate cancer were 72.57%,38.08%,18.57%;and the 1-,5-,10-year RS were 78.45%,56.99%,44.40%,respectively.After age-standardized the 1-,5-,10-year RS of prostate cancer were 75.19%,53.30%and 43.24%,respectively.The 5-year RS increased from 26.24%in 1987—1991 to 59.97%in 2012—2016,10-year RS increased from 27.13%in 1987—1991 to 51.50%in 2012—2016(χ2=63.41,P<0.001).The 5-year OS for the age groups of 55~64,65~74,and over 75 years were 52.58%,46.64%,and 30.56%,respectively;and the 5-year RS were 56.62%,56.92%,58.06%,respectively(χ2=8.67,P=0.926).The overall APC of 5-year OS from 1987 to 2016 was 4.97%(t=2.261,P=0.032).And the overall APC of 5-year RS was 4.32%(t=1.850,P=0.075).The 5-year RS trend analysis by age group showed that the APC of age group of 55~64 years was 20.13%(t=1.474,P=0.215),APC of age group of 65~74 years was 2.62%(t=2.544,P=0.064),and that of age group of over 75 years was 15.31%(t=1.207,P=0.294).[Conclusion]The survival rate of prostate cancer in Qidong has been improved to a certain extent from 1987 to 2016,but it need to be further improved.We should continue to pay attention to the early diagnosis and early treatment of prostate cancer.

关 键 词：前列腺癌 生存率 趋势 江苏 

分 类 号：R737.25[医药卫生—肿瘤]