考虑疫苗效力差异的封闭场馆疫情传播分析  

Analysis of epidemic transmission in closed venues considering difference of vaccine effectiveness

作　　者：方丹辉[1,2] 周敏[1,2] 洪荭[3] 李庭洋 FANG Danhui;ZHOU Min;HONG Hong;LI Tingyang(China Research Center for Emergency Management,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan Hubei 430070,China;School of Safety Science and Emergency Management,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan Hubei 430070,China;School of Management,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan Hubei 430070,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉理工大学中国应急管理研究中心,湖北武汉430070 [2]武汉理工大学安全科学与应急管理学院,湖北武汉430070 [3]武汉理工大学管理学院,湖北武汉430070

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2022年第7期121-127,共7页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：国家重点研发计划“科技冬奥”重点项目(2021YFF0306000)。

摘　　要：为使闭环管理的赛事场馆平稳运行,预防疫情传播风险,鉴于经典传染病模型未考虑不同人群疫苗效力的差别和场馆实际情况,提出一种考虑高低防护人群且将感染者归入移出者的易感染者-潜伏者-移出者(SER)传染病模型;以Delta病毒为例,通过2021年7月扬州疫情数据拟合部分模型参数;选取冰壶比赛场景,考虑疫情防控和赛事举办效果平衡,将管控措施分为4个等级,运用SER模型仿真推演3种疫情输入情况。结果表明:若未制定合理的管控措施,病毒将会快速传播;在为期8天的比赛中,最多会出现数百名感染病例。针对不同输入情况,通过不同等级的管控措施,包括减少人群接触,提高核酸筛查力度,加强赛事运行控制,感染率可下降90%。In order to make the closed-loop managed event venues run smoothly and prevent the risk of epidemic transmission,in view of the fact that the classical infectious disease model does not consider the difference of vaccine efficacy among different populations and the actual situation of the venues,a Susceptible-Exposed-Removed(SER)infectious disease model considering high and low protective populations and removing infected persons wss proposed..Taking Delta virus as an example,some model parameters were fitted by Yangzhou epidemic data in July 2021.In this paper,The curling competition scenario was selected,and the control measures were divided into four levels considering the balance of epidemic prevention and control and the effect of the event.,and the SER model was used to simulate and deduce the three epidemic input conditions.The results show that the virus spread rapidly without reasonable control measures.In the eight-day competition,there are up to hundreds of infection cases.According to different input conditions,the infection rate can be reduced by 90%through different levels of control measures,including reducing population contact,improving nucleic acid screening,and strengthening the operation control of events..

关 键 词：传染病模型 疫苗效力差异 封闭场馆 疫情传播 管控措施 

分 类 号：X915.2[环境科学与工程—安全科学]