基于结构与效率双控的北京市碳达峰优化路径仿真模拟研究  

Optimization Path Simulation of Carbon Emission Peak in Beijing-based on Structure and Efficiency Improvement

作　　者：相楠 徐峰 XIANG Nan;XU Feng(School of Economics and Management,Beijing University of Technology,Beijing 100124,China;School of Economics and Management,Beijing University of Chemical Technology,Beijing 100029,China)

机构地区：[1]北京工业大学经济与管理学院,北京100124 [2]北京化工大学经济管理学院,北京100029

出　　处：《北京工业大学学报（社会科学版）》2022年第4期68-87,共20页Journal of Beijing University of Technology (Social Sciences Edition)

摘　　要：中国政府明确提出了2030年前碳达峰、2060年碳中和的“两步走”目标,北京市率先实现碳达峰是发挥全国科技创新中心和绿色发展首善之区作用的职责所在,也是高质量发展的内在要求。为探索北京市碳达峰的时间表和路线图,研究了创新性开发北京市碳达峰模拟器,利用复杂系统动态仿真的方法,模拟预测2020—2035年北京市经济、能源和碳排放的演进规律。模拟结果表明:考虑外调电力碳排放情况下,结构与效率双管齐下时,北京市在2027年实现碳达峰,碳达峰值为14751万吨;碳达峰后实现绝对脱钩发展,至2035年碳排放量保持稳定下降态势,同时,GDP保持稳定增长态势,年平均增长率近4%;新能源在能源消费中占比在达峰年达12%,且逐年提升到2035年达31%,此时北京市的整体能源效率较2017年水平相比提升了51%;产业和能源结构优化的边际减排效果在碳达峰前更为显著,在后期能源效率提升的边际效果则更为突出。The Chinese government has clearly put forward the"two-step"goals of carbon peaking by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060.As the capital of China,Beijing needs to take the lead in achieving the carbon peak;and provide a reasonable and feasible scientific methodology to optimize the carbon peaking path.In order to explore the timetable and roadmap of Beijing carbon peak,the study carried out simulation prediction research from the perspective of dual control of structure and efficiency,innovatively developed the Beijing Carbon Peak Simulator,and utilized policy dynamic simulation as an approach to achieve 2020—2035 simulation of Beijing′s economy-energy-carbon development.The simulation results show that when structure and efficiency are combined,Beijing′s carbon peak can be achieved in 2027,significantly reducing the peak carbon emissions to 147.55 million tons.Under the dual control circumstance,the proportion of new energy in the peak year reaches 12.1%,and it will increase year by year to 31.4%in 2035,and the overall energy efficiency can be improved by 51%.Among the three major measures,the marginal emission reduction effect of the optimization of structure is more significant in the early stage,and the marginal effect of energy efficiency improvement in the later period of peaking is more obvious.

关 键 词：碳达峰模拟器 产业与能源结构 能源效率 投入产出模型 复杂系统仿真 

分 类 号：X22[环境科学与工程—环境科学] X022