灰色-时序组合模型在建筑物沉降预测中的应用  

Application of Combined Grey-time Series Model in Building Settlement Prediction

作　　者：鲁玉芬[1] 方从严[1] 开明 LU Yufen;FANG Congyan;KAI Ming(Wuhu Assembly Engineering Technology Research Center,Wuhu Institute of Technology,Wuhu Anhui 241002,China;Wuhu Surveying and Mapping Design Institute Co.Ltd.,Wuhu Anhui 241000,China)

机构地区：[1]芜湖职业技术学院芜湖市装配式工程技术研究中心,安徽芜湖241002 [2]芜湖市勘察测绘设计研究院有限责任公司,安徽芜湖241000

出　　处：《科技和产业》2022年第8期315-318,共4页Science Technology and Industry

基　　金：2020年度安徽高校自然科学研究重大项目(KJ2020ZD73);芜湖职业技术学院科技创新服务平台:装配式工程技术研究中心项目(Kjcxpt202006);安徽省《建筑工程测量》教学示范课(皖教秘高〔2020〕165号)。

摘　　要：为了获得较为准确的建筑物沉降预测结果和较高的预测精度,结合灰色模型、时间序列模型的优点,提出灰色-时序组合模型进行建筑物沉降预测的方法,有效克服了单一模型预测精度低的缺点。以某工程实例沉降观测数据作为原始建模分析数据,通过对灰色预测模型、时间序列预测模型以及组合预测模型的预测结果进行比较分析,结果表明,灰色-时序组合模型预测的沉降值更接近实测值,预测的精度比单一模型更高,具有一定适用性,有利于高层建筑物的沉降预测、预警,确保建筑物的安全性。To get more accurate prediction results and higher prediction accuracy,combined with the advantages of grey model and time series model,a grey time series combined model is proposed to predict building settlement,which effectively overcomes the shortcomings of low precision of single model.Taking a project as example,and based on its data first mock exam data of a project,the comparison between the grey prediction model,the time series prediction model and the combined forecasting model is carried out.The results show that the settlement value predicted by the grey time series composite model is closer to the actual measurement value,and the prediction accuracy is higher than that of the single model,which is applicable to the prediction and early warning of the high-rise building settlement.The safety of the building is ensured.

关 键 词：灰色模型 时间序列模型 组合模型 沉降预测 

分 类 号：TU196[建筑科学—建筑理论]