可再生能源政策对碳排放的影响研究  

Research on the Impact of Renewable Energy Policies on Carbon Emissions

作　　者：范秋芳[1] 邢相飞 FAN Qiufang;XING Xiangfei(School of Economics and Management,China University of Petroleum(East China),Qingdao 266580,China)

机构地区：[1]中国石油大学(华东)经济管理学院,山东青岛266580

出　　处：《华东经济管理》2022年第8期63-73,共11页East China Economic Management

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“基于随机控制实验的城镇居民节水行为引导策略研究”(20BJL035);教育部人文社会科学研究项目“基于新时代社会主要矛盾的社会创新驱动战略及路径选择研究”(18YJA810001)。

摘　　要：文章收集了2000—2020年我国30个省份(不包括西藏和港澳台地区)的可再生能源政策数据,从中央、地方两个层面以及政策工具、政策力度、政策目标三个维度进行分析,构建PVAR模型分析全国以及东部、中部、西部、东北地区可再生能源政策对碳排放的影响。研究表明:中央机构层面的可再生能源政策主要以五年规划为指导,逐步出台了水能、风能、太阳能、生物质能等政策文件,内容不断1完善;政策类型逐渐多元,覆盖了战略、规划、标准等多类型政策。各地区层次政策文本数量庞大,政策工具利用略有差别,东部、中部、西部地区偏重于命令型和激励型政策,东北地区信息型利用较多;政策力度略有差异,东北地区政策力度较大,其他地区多集中于中间力度等级;政策目标都较为清晰,有力促进了可再生能源发展。检验得出可再生能源政策对碳排放有抑制作用,各地区政策冲击不同,全部地区、东部地区和西部地区政策效用显著,政策存在滞后效应。This paper collects the renewable energy policy data of 30 provinces in China(excluding Tibet,Hong Kong,Macao,and Taiwan)from 2000 to 2020,analyzes them from the central and local levels,as well as the three dimensions of policy tools,policy strength,and policy objectives,and constructs a PVAR model to analyze the impact of renewable en⁃ergy policies on carbon emissions in the whole country and the eastern,central,western,and northeast regions.The re⁃search shows that renewable energy policies at the central institutional level are mainly guided by the five-year plan,and have gradually issued policy documents such as hydropower,wind energy,solar energy,biomass energy,and the content has been continuously improved;the types of policies are gradually diversified,covering strategies,plans,standards,and other types of policies.There are a large number of policy texts at the regional level,and the use of policy tools is slightly different.The eastern,central,and western regions focus on command-based and incentive policies,while the northeast region uses more information-based policies;the policy strength is slightly different.The policy strength in northeast is relatively large,and other regions are mostly concentrated in the middle level;the policy objectives are relatively clear,which has effectively promoted the development of renewable energy.The test shows that renewable energy policies have an inhibitory effect on carbon emissions,and the policy impact is different in different regions.The policy effectiveness in all regions,eastern,and western regions is significant,and policies have a lag effect.

关 键 词：可再生能源政策 碳排放 PVAR模型 两步系统GMM 

分 类 号：F426.2[经济管理—产业经济] X22[环境科学与工程—环境科学]