基于改进的分形理论的短期电力负荷预测  

Short-Term Power Load Forecasting Based on Improved Fractal Theory

作　　者：徐建军[1] 王硕昌 袁硕 张铭桥 马睿 潘立超 XU Jianjun;WANG Shuochang;YUAN Shuo;ZHANG Mingqiao;MA Rui;PAN Lichao(School of Electrical and Information Engineering,Northeast Petroleum University,Daqing 163318,China)

机构地区：[1]东北石油大学电气信息工程学院,黑龙江大庆163318

出　　处：《吉林大学学报（信息科学版）》2022年第3期347-353,共7页Journal of Jilin University（Information Science Edition）

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51774088)。

摘　　要：为提高负荷预测结果的精度,设计了一种基于改进的分形理论的短期负荷预测模型。选取与实测日气象数据相似的日期作为基准日,对其进行重标极差法分析,从而确定其具有分形的特征,根据分形插值区间计算迭代压缩因子和确定迭代函数系统(IFS:Iterative Function System)建立实测日的分形插值函数,通过移动平均函数对数据进行处理,利用最小二乘法(OLS:Ordinary Least Square)建立数据拟合方程,将时间数据带入拟合方程中计算预测数据。经过仿真对比实验,改进后的比改进前的预测模型预测的负荷数据平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE:Mean Absolute Percentage Error)下降了0.26,证明了改进分形理论的短期电力负荷预测模型可以有效提高负荷预测结果的准确性。In order to improve the accuracy of load forecasting results, a short-term load forecasting model based on improved fractal theory is designed. The date similar to the meteorological data is selected as the reference date, and the reference date is analyzed by re-scale-range method to determine that the reference date had fractal characteristics. The Iterative compression factor is calculated according to the fractal interpolation interval and the IFS(Iterative Function System) is established to establish the fractal interpolation Function of the reference date. The moving average function is used to process the data, and OLS(Ordinary Least Square) is used to establish the data fitting equation, and the time data is put into the fitting equation to calculate the predicted data. After simulation comparison experiment, the MAPE(Mean Absolute Percentage Error) of load data predicted by the improved prediction model decreases by 0.26 compared with the previous prediction model. It is proved that the short-term power load forecasting model based on improved fractal theory can effectively improve the accuracy of load forecasting results.

关 键 词：分形插值函数 迭代函数系 电力负荷预测 非线性理论 重标极差法 

分 类 号：TP305[自动化与计算机技术—计算机系统结构] TM715[自动化与计算机技术—计算机科学与技术]