“机器换人”时代低技能劳动力何去何从?——基于中国劳动力动态调查数据的检验  

Where Do the Low⁃skilled Laborers Go in the Era of“Machine Substitution”?A Study Based on China Labor⁃force Dynamic Survey Data

作　　者：綦建红[1] 付晶晶 Qi Jianhong;Fu Jingjing(School of Economics,Shandong University)

机构地区：[1]山东大学经济学院,山东济南250100

出　　处：《人口研究》2022年第4期114-128,共15页Population Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“‘一带一路’国家金融生态多样性对中国海外投资效率的影响研究”(17ZDA040);国家社会科学基金重大项目“新旧动能转换机制设计及路径选择研究”(18ZDA078);国家社会科学基金一般项目“人工智能对企业间工资差距的影响机理与对策研究”(21BJY097)的资助。

摘　　要：基于中国劳动力动态调查与海关进口机器人数据等,考察了机器人对低技能劳动力跨市流出的影响机制,并讨论了低技能劳动力的行业和区位流向。结果表明,机器人减少了第二产业就业岗位数,对低技能劳动力产生了替代效应,显著增加了低技能劳动力跨市流出的概率;行业转移层面,机器人增加了45岁及以下低技能劳动力流入服务业和45岁以上低技能劳动力流入农林牧渔业的概率;城市转移层面,机器人增加了低技能劳动力流入本市服务业和跨市流入一线城市服务业的概率;区域转移层面,受教育程度较高的低技能劳动力在东部流动,而受教育程度较低的低技能劳动力出现了流入西部的趋势。这些研究结论对于深入把握机器人对劳动力就业转移的影响、制定合理的机器人产业政策及人口流动政策具有一定的指导意义。This study investigates the impact and mechanism of robots on the inter-city outflow of low-skilled laborers based on the China Labor-force Dynamic Survey and customs data. The results show that robots reduce the number of jobs in the secondary industry and replace the low-skilled laborers, increasing the probability of low-skilled workers’ outflow across cities. In terms of industry transfer, robots lead to a higher probability of low-skilled laborers under 45 years old flowing into the service industry and low-skilled laborers above 45 years old flowing into primary industry. In terms of city transfer, the probability of low-skilled laborers flowing into the city’s service industry and first-tier city’s service industry has increased due to robots. In terms of inter-region movement, more educated low-skilled laborers tend to move to East China, while less educated low-skilled laborers tend to move to the west regions. The results have important policy implications for formulating policy regarding robot industry and population movement.

关 键 词：机器人 低技能劳动力 就业转移 

分 类 号：C975[经济管理—劳动经济] F249.2