中国制造业CO_(2)排放与经济脱钩关系解析  

Analysis of Decoupling Relationship Between Economy and CO_(2) Emissions from Manufacturing Industry of China

作　　者：宋晓聪 杜帅 沈鹏[1] 谢明辉[1] 赵慈[1] 刘晓宇[1] 陈忱[1] SONG Xiaocong;DU Shuai;SHEN Peng;XIE Minghui;ZHAO Ci;LIU Xiaoyu;CHEN Chen(Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences,Beijing 100012,China;Beijing Guo Dian Fu Tong Science and Technology Development Co.,Ltd.Bejing 100070,China)

机构地区：[1]中国环境科学研究院,北京100012 [2]北京国电富通科技发展有限责任公司,北京100070

出　　处：《环境科学与技术》2022年第7期201-208,共8页Environmental Science & Technology

基　　金：中央财政科技计划结余经费专项项目(2021-JY-07);国家重点研发计划(2021YFC1809104)。

摘　　要：文章利用排放因子法测算了2005-2019年中国制造业CO_(2)排放量,通过Tapio脱钩模型分析了2006-2019年中国制造业CO_(2)排放与经济间的脱钩趋势。基于Kaya恒等式和LMDI方法定量分析能源结构、价值创造、能源强度、经济产出对制造业CO_(2)排放总量的影响。研究结果表明:2006-2019年制造业经历了弱脱钩阶段(2006-2010年)、扩张负脱钩阶段(2011-2015年)、强负脱钩阶段(2016-2019年)3个脱钩阶段。通过分析不同阶段脱钩状态的内在原因,发现“十一五”时期经济产出、价值创造和能源结构为影响CO_(2)排放的主要因素,对于CO_(2)排放作用程度由大到小为经济产出>价值创造>能源结构>能源强度;“十二五”时期各因素对CO_(2)排放作用程度由大到小为能源强度>价值创造>经济产出>能源结构,其中只有价值创造效应为负向抑制作用;“十三五”时期经济产出效应对制造业CO_(2)排放起到负向抑制作用,但是价值创造的正向作用大于经济产出的负向作用,造成了“十三五”时期制造业CO_(2)排放与经济间的强负脱钩。总体来讲,2006-2019年能源结构、能源强度和经济产出效应是影响CO_(2)排放的主要因素,均对CO_(2)排放产生了促进作用,而且能源结构>经济产出>能源强度。In this paper,the emission factor method is used to measure and calculate the CO_(2)emissions of China’s manufacturing industry during the years 2005-2019,and the trend of the decoupling relationship between CO_(2)emissions of manufacturing and the economy of China during the period from 2006 to 2019 is analyzed by Tapio decoupling model.In addition,based on the Kaya-identity and LMDI methods,the impacts of energy structure,value creation,energy intensity,and economic output on total CO_(2)emissions of the manufacturing industry are quantitatively analyzed.The research results suggest that the manufacturing industry has experienced three decoupling stages from 2006 to 2019:the weak decoupling stage(2006-2010),the expansion negative decoupling stage(2011-2015),and the strong negative decoupling stage(2016-2019).Through analyzing the internal causes leading to the decoupling in different stages,it has been found that the economic output,value creation,energy structure and energy intensity are the main factors influencing CO_(2)emissions during the period of the Eleventh Five-Year Plan,and the intensity of influencing factors of CO_(2)emission in descending order is:economic output>value creation>energy structure>energy intensity;while that of affecting factors of CO_(2)emissions during the period of the Twelfth Five-Year Plan is as energy intensity>value creation>economic output>energy structure,of which only the value creation has negative inhibitory effects.Moreover,the economic output during the period of the 13th Five-Year Plan has negative inhibitory effects on CO_(2)emissions of the manufacturing industry,but the positive effect of the value creation is greater than the negative effect of the economic output,which resulted in strongly negative decoupling of the economy and CO_(2)emissions of the manufacturing industry during that period.In general,the effects of energy structure,energy intensity and economic output from 2006 to 2019 are the main factors affecting CO_(2)emissions,all of which have boosted CO

关 键 词：制造业 CO_(2)排放 经济 脱钩 

分 类 号：X22[环境科学与工程—环境科学]