多情景下鄱阳湖滨湖区生态系统服务价值预测  

Multi-scenario Simulation and Prediction of ESV for Poyang Lake Lakeside Area

作　　者：刘志勇[1] 方朝阳[1,2] 蔡振饶 李慧中 夏阳 陈浩 LIU Zhiyong;FANG Chaoyang;CAI Zhenrao;LI Huizhong;XIA Yang;CHEN Hao(School of Geography and Environment,Jiangxi Normal University,Nanchang 330022,China;Key Lab of Ministry of Education for Poyang Lake Wetland and Watershed Research,Nanchang 330022,China)

机构地区：[1]江西师范大学地理与环境学院,江西南昌330022 [2]鄱阳湖湿地与流域研究教育部重点实验室,江西南昌330022

出　　处：《环境科学与技术》2022年第7期218-227,共10页Environmental Science & Technology

基　　金：国家社会科学基金艺术学重大项目(19ZD27);江西省重点研发计划重点项目(20192ACB70014);江西省教育厅研究生创新基金项目(YC2021-B060)。

摘　　要：生态系统服务价值(ESV)是区域生态福祉的重要测度指标,探析ESV演变规律对区域生态保护政策制定和绿色发展具有重要参考意义。该研究以鄱阳湖滨湖区为研究区域,基于1990、2000、2010与2018年的土地利用数据,采用当量因子法对ESV进行评估,探究土地利用变化对其ESV的影响,并借助FLUS模型设置基准情景与生态保护情景,分析2026年与2034年不同情景下研究区ESV的差异。结果表明:(1)1990-2018年,鄱阳湖滨湖区建设用地和水域面积整体呈增长趋势,耕地、林地、草地与未利用地面积均呈减少趋势。(2)研究期内生态系统服务价值总量增加了21.43亿元,总体呈现波动增长的趋势。(3)基准情景下,与2018年土地利用情况相比较,预测年份耕地、林地与未利用地面积减少,建设用地、水域与草地面积增加,建设用地的增长幅度最大。2026年及2034年的ESV较2018年分别减少21.13亿元和41.38亿元。(4)生态优化情景下,与基准情景相比较,建设用地扩张放缓,林地和未利用地面积有所增长。2026年及2034年研究区生态系统总价值为2790.98亿元和2792.43亿元,较基准情景下总价值提高22.51亿元、44.21亿元。设置生态红线及重点湿地保护区对提高区域生态系统服务总价值具有重要作用,建议在未来土地开发过程中严格执行生态保护红线,加强对重点湿地的保护。Ecosystem services value(ESV)is a essential indicator reflecting the well-being of regional ecosystem.To explore the laws of ESV evolution is of important interests of reference for formulation of the regional ecological protection and green development.In this study,the lakeside area of Poyang Lake being as a study area,therein the impacts of land-use changes on ESV were studied on the basis of land-use data of the years of 1990,2000,2010 and 2018,as well as the evaluation done by use of the equivalent factor method.ESV of the study area in 2026 and 2034 was predicted with the help of FLUS model,and the difference of ESV between the two years under two different scenarios(the baseline scenario and ecological protection scenario)was analyzed.The findings of these studies suggested that from the period of 1990-2018,there appeared,on the whole,the increases of construction land and water-body areas in the lakeside of Poyang Lake,and the trend of decreases of arable land,forestland,grassland and uncultivated land.The total ESV increased by 2.143 billion yuan during the study period,showing a fluctuating growth trend in general.Under the baseline scenario,compared with the land-use situation in2018,the area of arable land,forestland and uncultured land decreased,and the area of construction land,water-body and grassland increased,especially,the increase of construction land,and according to the prediction,compared with 2018,ESV of 2026 and 2034 would decrease by 2.113 billion yuan and 4.138 billion yuan,respectively.Under the ecological protection scenario,compared with the baseline scenario,the expansion of construction land would slow down,while the area of forestland and uncultivated land increase.In 2026 and 2034,total ESV of the study area would be respectively 279.098 billion yuan and 279.243 billion yuan,namely,the increases of respectively 2.251 billion yuan and 4.421 billion yuan higher than under the baseline scenario.In conclusion,setting of the ecological red-line and building up key wetland reserves were

关 键 词：土地利用 生态系统服务价值 多情景模拟 FLUS模型 鄱阳湖滨湖区 

分 类 号：X171[环境科学与工程—环境科学]