不同ATIS市场占有率下的逐日路径选择机理  

Mechanism of day-to-day route choice under different ATIS market penetration

作　　者：刘诗序[1] 王智煜 阎昊 朱建超 王叔雨 LIU Shi-xu;WANG Zhi-yu;YAN Hao;ZHU Jian-Chao;WANG Shu-yu(College of Civil Engineering,Fuzhou University,Fuzhou 350108,Fujian,China;Fuzhou Rail Transit Design Institute Co.,Ltd.,Fuzhou 350004,Fujian,China;Shanxi Technology and Business College,Taiyuan 030036,Shanxi,China)

机构地区：[1]福州大学土木工程学院,福建福州350108 [2]福州轨道交通设计院有限公司,福建福州350004 [3]山西工商学院,山西太原030036

出　　处：《长安大学学报（自然科学版）》2022年第4期118-126,共9页Journal of Chang’an University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71971005)。

摘　　要：为探究不同先进的出行者信息系统(ATIS)市场占有率下的出行者逐日路径选择机理,借助行为试验方法,设计5组具有代表性的不同ATIS市场占有率下出行者逐日路径选择行为试验,ATIS市场占有率依次为0%、25%、50%、75%和100%,根据构造的路径选择决策变量可能出现的4种情形,将其记为4个特征变量并分类统计,采用“K-Means++”理论建模并进行聚类探讨其路径选择机理。研究结果表明:随着试验轮数的增加,Braess路网的3条路径历史行程时间持续波动,并且随着ATIS市场占有率的增大而逐步趋于用户均衡;路径切换次数呈现波动状态并贯穿试验全程;当ATIS市场占有率为0%时,路径切换次数显著高于其他ATIS市场占有率(25%、50%、75%、100%);当出行路网存在一定的ATIS市场占有率时,路径切换次数仅在ATIS市场占有率为50%和75%之间存在较小差异;出行者在逐日路径选择过程中,总体上存在4种路径选择模式,直接响应、逆向响应、始终保持路径选择、始终切换路径选择;不同ATIS市场占有率下,出行者的路径选择模式不尽相同;随着ATIS市场占有率逐渐增大,出行者群体之间的路径选择模式差异程度逐渐增大,出行者的个体异质性也逐渐增大;出行者在完全路网信息条件下对行程时间变化的敏感性比在不完全路网信息条件下差。To explore the mechanism of travelers’day-to-day route choice under different advanced traveler information systems(ATIS)market share,with the help of behavioral experiment,five representative day-to-day route-choice behavior experiments were designed for travelers under different ATIS market penetration(0%,25%,50%,75%and 100%).According to the four possible scenarios of constructed route choice decision variables,they were recorded as four characteristic variables and the travelers were classified.The K-Means++clustering model was used to analyze the route choice mechanism.The results show that with the increase of experimental rounds,the historical travel times of three routes of the Braess network fluctuate continuously.With the increase of ATIS market penetration,the travel times gradually tend to user equilibrium and the number of route switching fluctuates through the whole experiment.When the ATIS market penetration is 0%,the number of route switching is significantly higher than that of other ATIS market penetration(25%,50%,75%,100%).When the network has a certain ATIS market penetration,the number of route switching is only a small difference between the ATIS market penetration of 50%and 75%.Four kinds of route choice patterns are found in traveler’s day-to-day route choice,direct response,reverse response,always maintaining route choice,and always switching route choice.Under different ATIS market penetration,the route choice modes are not the same.With the increase of ATIS market penetration,the difference degree of route choice mode between groups of travelers gradually increases,and the individual heterogeneity of travelers is also gradually increasing.The sensitivity of travelers to the change of travel time under the condition of complete network information is worse than that under the condition of incomplete network information.5 tabs,3 figs,27 refs.

关 键 词：交通工程 路径选择机理 聚类分析 ATIS市场占有率 行为试验 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]