近70年不同路径的南海热带气旋的统计特征  

STATISTICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH DIFFERENT TRACKS IN THE PAST 70 YEARS

作　　者：江文 王东海 张春燕 曾智琳 李国平[1] JIANG Wen;WANG Donghai;ZHANG Chunyan;ZENG Zhilin;LI Guoping(School of Atmospheric Sciences,Chengdu University of Information Technology,Chengdu 610225,China;School of Atmospheric Sciences/Guangdong Province Key Laboratory for Climate Change and Natural Disaster Studies/Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory,Sun Yat-sen University,Zhuhai,Guangdong 519082,China;National Observation and Research Station of Coastal Ecological Environments in Macao,Macao Environmental Research Institute,Macao University of Science and Technology,Macao SAR999078,China)

机构地区：[1]成都信息工程大学大气科学学院,四川成都610225 [2]中山大学大气科学学院/广东省气候变化与自然灾害研究重点实验室/南方海洋科学与工程广东省实验室,广东珠海519082 [3]澳门海岸带生态环境国家野外科学观测研究站/澳门环境研究院/澳门科技大学,中国澳门999078

出　　处：《热带气象学报》2022年第3期433-443,共11页Journal of Tropical Meteorology

基　　金：广东省基础与应用基础研究重大项目(2020B0301030004);国家重点研发计划项目(2019YFC1510400)共同资助。

摘　　要：为进一步认识南海热带气旋(SCSTC)的基本特征规律,利用中国气象局上海台风研究所(CMA-ATI)整编的“热带气旋最佳路径数据集”等资料,对1949—2019年不同移动路径的SCSTC的频数、源地、强度变化等特征进行统计分析。(1)近70年的SCSTC的频数呈现递减的趋势,其中东北走向的SCSTC频数相对较少,其峰值集中在5月、6月,西/西北走向的SCSTC频数相对较多,约占总数的76%,其峰值集中在8月、9月,且西/西北走向的SCSTC频数变化趋势与西太平洋副热带高压(“副高”)脊线位置的移动趋势相匹配,即当副高脊线逐渐向北(南)移动时,SCSTC频数随月份逐渐增多(减少)。(2)东北走向的SCSTC平均强度比西/西北走向的SCSTC强,生命史也更长,并且在5种SCSTC强度等级中,东北走向的台风和强台风的强度二次加强的现象相比西/西北走向的更显著。(3)两种路径走向的SCSTC的源地位置随着季节的变化都有一个先北抬后南撤的过程,与副高脊线的移动规律一致,东北走向SCSTC源地位置整体比西/西北走向的SCSTC更偏北2~3个纬距。To further understand the basic characteristics of the tropical cyclones over the South China Sea(SCSTC),this paper uses the best track dataset of tropical cyclones compiled by the Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration(CMA-ATI) to analyze the frequency,origin and intensity changes of SCSTC with different moving paths from 1949 to 2019 by wavelet analysis and synthetic analysis.The results show that:(1) The frequency of SCSTC shows a decreasing trend year by year.The overall frequency of SCSTC in the northeast direction is relatively low,and the peak months are mainly in May and June.The overall frequency of SCSTC in the west/northwest direction is relatively high,accounting for about 76 % of the total,and the peak months are mainly in August and September.The change in the frequency of SCSTC in the west/northwest direction is consistent with the movement of the ridgeline of the western Pacific subtropical high.When the ridgeline of the subtropical high gradually moves north(south),the frequency of SCSTC gradually increases(decreases).(2) The average intensity of the SCSTC in the northeast direction is stronger than that in the west/northwest direction,and the life cycle is longer.Secondary strengthening of typhoons and strong typhoons is more significant in northeastward SCSTC.(3) The oirigin points of SCSTC with different paths have undergone northward uplift and then southward withdrawal with the change of seasons,which is consistent with the movement of subtropical high ridgeline.The oirigin point of SCSTC in the northeast direction is 2~3 latitudes norther than that of SCSTC in the west/northwest direction.

关 键 词：SCSTC 移动路径 频数 强度 源地 

分 类 号：P444[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]