消费者对产品估值不确定与后悔效应下在线零售商退货策略研究  

Return policy for online retailers in the presence of product value uncertainty and consumer anticipated regret

作　　者：陈飔佳 官振中[1] CHEN Sijia;GUAN Zhenzhong(School of Economics and Management,Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu 610031,China)

机构地区：[1]西南交通大学经济管理学院,四川成都610031

出　　处：《管理工程学报》2022年第5期181-195,共15页Journal of Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71572154)。

摘　　要：本文针对策略型消费者网络购物问题,在考虑策略型消费者对产品估值不确定以及具有预期后悔行为下,研究了退货策略对消费者购买决策以及在线零售商运作决策的影响。以最大化在线零售商利润为目标,本文分别构建了退货策略与不退货策略下的利润模型。研究表明:消费者对产品估值的不确定性水平会降低零售商的利润,预期后悔会加剧零售商利润的降低;退货策略有利于缓解估值不确定与预期后悔对零售商的损害,且在退货策略下,消费者的预期后悔行为有利于增加零售商的利润。因此在线零售商的最优决策受产品匹配率以及高价值消费者比例的影响,无论零售商是否实施退货策略,零售价较低时市场完全覆盖下的最优订购量与最优利润并不总是优于零售价较高时市场部分覆盖策略下的,从而为在线零售商的退货略选择提供决策支持。With the development of e-commerce,the online shopping platforms represented by Amazon,JD.com and Taobao have got favored by most consumers.According to the 45 th“Statistical Report on the Development of China′s Internet”,the number of online shopping users in China had reached 710 million by March 2020,accounting for 78.6%of the total netizens.However,due to the separation of consumer purchases from consumer behavior in this shopping mode,consumers are not exposed to physical products.Instead,they form the initial perceived value by browsing the text,pictures,video introduction and product evaluation on the page,based on which a purchase decision is made.Moreover,only after receiving the actual product can they acquire the true information of the product such as material,quality and use experience.In most cases,it has a certain deviation in perception from the initial evaluation,which may degrade the final value evaluation.This uncertainty triggers the need for consumers to return the product that is found inapplicable after receiving it.In addition,when making purchase decisions,strategic consumers will comprehensively consider such factors as product prices and product availability based on the information obtained from various channels,and then generate rational expectations for future market conditions.The effects of purchases during the full price period and during the clearance period are compared,and the principle of maximizing self-revenue is utilized to choose the most favorable purchase timing.Under the stimulation of discounts,consumers often anticipate the current original-price products and future discount products separately.When consumers realize that they may regret their current choice in the future,i.e.,the regret anticipation,their purchasing decisions will be affected.As a result,they often wait for buying products at a low price during the clearance period,which negatively influences both the shopping experience of consumers and the discount promotion strategy of online retailers.As co

关 键 词：策略型消费者 产品估值不确定 预期后悔 消费者退货 

分 类 号：F270[经济管理—企业管理]