云南省精细化冰雹灾害危险性区划分析  

Analysis of Division of Hail Hazard Area in Detail in Yunnan Province

作　　者：尹丽云 梅寒 张腾飞 刘雪涛 金文杰 许彦艳[4] YIN Liyun;MEI Han;ZHANG Tengfei;LIU Xuetao;JIN Wenjie;XU Yanyan(Research Center of Severe Weather in Hengduan Mountains area(The Low latitude Plateau),Kunming 650034,China;Yunnan Weather Modification Center,Kunming 650034,China;Meteorological Bureau of Diqing prefecture,Diqing 674400,China;Yunnan Meteorological Observatory,Kunming 650034,China)

机构地区：[1]横断山区(低纬高原)灾害性天气研究中心,云南昆明650034 [2]云南省人工影响天气中心,云南昆明650034 [3]云南省迪庆州气象局,云南迪庆674400 [4]云南省气象台,云南昆明650034

出　　处：《灾害学》2022年第3期99-105,共7页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：云南省科技项目(2016RA096、202203AC100005-4);云南省气象局重点研究项目(RY201601;QZ202108)。

摘　　要：利用2009—2021年云南省966个人工防雹作业点和125个气象站的冰雹记录,基于1:250000 ASTER GDEM 30 s分辨率数字高程,利用Pearson相关分析、非线性回归统计等方法,研究了云南冰雹频数与海拔高度、地形坡度、坡向、地形切割深度和经纬度的相关关系。结果表明海拔是影响云南冰雹活动的主要地形因子,冰雹主要出现在1800~2200 m、坡度<10°、地形切割深度<10 m、地势平缓的丘陵和盆地,坡向在强对流活动中的作用随季节发生变化,哀牢山西部的S-W坡向、哀牢山以东的N-E坡向对冰雹频数影响较为显著,经度差异是导致云南出现冰雹灾害的主要影响因子之一。利用海拔高度、地形坡度、坡向、地形切割深度和经度作为影响因子,通过高斯函数拟合建立云南冰雹频数与多个地形因子的非线性回归方程,根据层次分析法和权重判别模型,利用多重线性回归建立云南冰雹灾害危险性评估方程,形成云南冰雹危险区划图并开展云南冰雹危险性评估,得出云南中部、东部和西部烤烟主要种植区为冰雹高危险区域。云南冰雹危险性区划对云南高原特色农业种植产业结构调整、人工防雹作业点布局规划和冰雹风险区划具有重要指导作用。Relationship between hail activity and altitude,slope,topographic cutting depth,slope direction,longitude and latitude was studied.based on the analysis of GIS digital terrain,correlation and nonlinear regression statistics using hail Record information of 966 artificial hail suppression stations and 125 observation stations from 2009 to 2021,1∶250000 ASTER GDEM 30S resolution Digital Elevation Model(DEM)data in Yunnan Province.The results showed that the hail frequency increased gradually from east to west in Yunnan,altitude is the main terrain factors on hail activity.Hail mainly occurred in 1800~2200 m downlands and basins with slope<10°and topographic cutting depth<10 m,The role of slope aspect varied with the season in severe convective activity.The slope to the west-south of the western Ailao Mountain and the slope to North-East of the eastern Ailao Mountain influenced greater on hail frequency,Longitude difference was also one of the main influencing factors of hail activity in Yunnan.The nonlinear regression equation and the hail disaster risk assessment equation of hail frequency and multiple terrain factors was established based on gaussian function fitting,analytic hierarchy process(AHP)and weight discriminant model.In the end,Map of hail risk area division was formed and the hail hazard assessment was carried out in Yunnan.The map of hail risk area division showed that high risk areas appeared in main growing area of flue-cured tobacco in the central,western and eastern of Yunnan.Hail hazard zone map has an important guiding role in the adjustment of characteristic agricultural planting industrial structure,layout planning of artificial hail prevention operation points and hail risk regionalization in Yunnan Plateau.

关 键 词：冰雹灾害 危险性区划 数字地形 非线性回归 云南省 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] X915.5[天文地球—工程地质学] P642[天文地球—地质矿产勘探]