公众对极端暴雨和洪水灾害的风险感知与保护行为关系研究——以新疆阿克苏地区为例  

Relationship Research Between Public Risk Perception on Extreme Precipitation and Floods and Protective Behavior Motivation——the Case of Aksu Region,Xinjiang

作　　者：褚万年 张伟 吴雪娇 张靖琳 刘世伟 王晓明 CHU Wannian;ZHANG Wei;WU Xuejiao;ZHANG Jinglin;LIU Shiwei;WANG Xiaomin(State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science,Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Lanzhou 730000,China;University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院冰冻圈科学国家重点实验室,甘肃兰州730000 [2]中国科学院大学,北京100049

出　　处：《灾害学》2022年第3期227-234,共8页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究(2019QZKK0208);中澳国际合作项目(131B62KYSB20190042);国家自然科学基金(41971083,42071091)。

摘　　要：了解公众对极端灾害事件的风险感知与保护行为间的关系,对制定政策提高公众保护行为意愿,进而降低极端灾害损失至关重要。基于保护动机理论,以极端暴雨和洪水为代表,利用新疆公众的问卷调查数据,采用结构方程模型分析公众气候变化认知、极端灾害风险感知与保护行为意愿之间的传导机制。研究发现,公众对气候变化的认知通过风险认知中介过程间接影响其保护行为意愿。威胁和应对评估是中介过程的重要变量,二者对保护行为意愿的路径系数分别为0.208和0.647,其中应对评估是影响公众预防行为意愿的重中之重。提出政府应着重加强以气候变化与极端灾害事件的关联性、极端灾害事件的特性、以及公众采取保护行为的有效性为核心的科普宣传工作,以提高公众对气候变化下极端事件的认知和保护行为意愿,增强防灾减灾政策和措施的有效性。Understanding the relationship between the public’s risk perception of extreme disaster events and their protective behavior motivation is very important for the formulation of policies to improve the public’s protective motivation,so as to reduce the loss of extreme disaster.Based on the Protection motivation theory(PMT),the structural equation model(SEM)was used to analyze the transmission mechanism among public perception of climate change,risk perception of extreme disasters and protective motivation,with extreme precipitation and flood as representatives and questionnaire data of XinJiang public.The results show that the public’s perception of climate change indirectly affects their protective motivation through the mediation process of risk perception.The Threat and Coping Appraisal is important variables in the mediation process,and the latter is the most important to affect the public’s protective motivation.It is proposed that the government should devoted much attention to the popularization of elementary knowledge on the themes of the correlation between climate change and extreme disaster events,the characteristics of extreme disaster events,and the effectiveness of public self-protective behaviors,so as to improve the public’s awareness and protective behavior motivation of extreme events under climate change and enhance the effectiveness of disaster prevention and reduction policies and measures.

关 键 词：极端天气事件 洪水灾害 风险感知 保护动机理论 主动预防行为 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] X915.5[经济管理—产业经济] F323.8