朔黄铁路水害特征及雨量警戒阈值研究  

Research on water disasters characteristics and rainfall warning threshold on the Shuozhou-Huanghua Railway

作　　者：张娣 曲晓黎 张中杰[2,3] 张金满 王洁 尤琦 ZHANG Di;QU Xiaoli;ZHANG Zhongjie;ZHANG Jinman;WANG Jie;YOU Qi(Public Meteorological Service Centre of Hebei Province,Shijiazhuang 050021,China;Meteorological Science Institute of Hebei Province,Shijiazhuang 050021,China;Key Laboratory for Meteorology and Ecological Environment of Hebei Province,Shijiazhuang 050021,China)

机构地区：[1]河北省气象服务中心,河北石家庄050021 [2]河北省气象科学研究所,河北石家庄050021 [3]河北省气象与生态环境重点实验室,河北石家庄050021

出　　处：《干旱气象》2022年第4期677-682,共6页Journal of Arid Meteorology

基　　金：河北省重点研发计划项目(19275413D);河北省气象局科研开发项目(19ky26)共同资助。

摘　　要：利用2017—2019年朔黄铁路水害记录及其沿线40个气象观测站的逐5 min降水量资料,分析水害及降水分布特征,统计连续降水量、1 h最大降水量和24 h降水量3个降水因子,应用均值-标准差法和极大值法,制定平原和山区路段铁路水害的无警戒、出巡警戒、限速警戒、封锁警戒雨量阈值。结果表明:朔黄铁路水害主要发生在7—8月,水害发生时降水的持续时间多在48 h以内;引发铁路水害的降水类型主要为局地暴雨、短时强降水、连续性降水,平原路段铁路水害主要由局地暴雨引发,山区路段主要诱因是连续性降水;平原路段出巡警戒准确率达88.5%,空报率为11.5%,限速警戒准确率达100%,山区路段出巡警戒准确率达88.9%,空报率为11.1%,针对平原和山区铁路路段制定的雨量警戒阈值,可为铁路安全行车和高效调度提供参考依据。Based on the record data of water disasters and the 5-min precipitation of 40 meteorological observation stations along the Shuozhou-Huanghua Railway from 2017 to 2019,the characteristics of railway water disasters and precipitation distribution were ana⁃lyzed,then the three precipitation factors including continuous precipitation,the hourly maximum precipitation and the 24-hour precipi⁃tation were counted,the rainfall warning thresholds of no warning,patrol warning,speed limit warning and blockade warning of railway sections in plains and mountainous areas were formulated by using the mean-standard deviation method and the maximum value method.The results show that the water disasters of the Shuozhou-Huanghua Railway mainly occurred in July and August,and the dura⁃tion of precipitation was mostly within 48 hours.The precipitation types causing water disasters were mainly local rainstorm,short-time heavy precipitation and long-duration precipitation,the railway water disasters in plain sections were mainly caused by local rainstorm,but the main cause of mountainous sections was long-duration precipitation.For railway section in the plain,the accuracy rate of patrol warning was 88.5%,the false rate was 11.5%,the accuracy rate of speed limit warning was 100%,for the railway section in the moun⁃tainous,the accuracy of patrols warning was 88.9%and the false rate was 11.1%.The rainfall warning threshold for railway sections in plains and mountainous areas could provide reference for safe running and efficient operation of railway.

关 键 词：铁路水害 降水分型 均值-标准差法 雨量警戒 

分 类 号：P429[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] U296[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]